After a fantastical first week of giving out free fantasy advice for all of our faithful readers, we have decided to make this a weekly segment.
You can stop applauding now, as we don’t need our collective ego’s stroked anymore… Well maybe K.M. Venne.
Follow our advice, and work your way towards another great week in fantasy football.
Must Start: Donald Driver . As an owner of Donald Driver, I’m going down with anyone who follows my lead this week if I’m wrong. Driver has 3 straight 100 yard+ games against the Lions including 142 and a TD last Thanksgiving. If your in a PPR league, this start is even easier as Driver is consistently Aaron Rodger’s move the chain guy totaling only 61 yards last week but on 9 catches for a 15 point week in PPR leagues. He seems to be the most trusted member of the Packer’s receiving core and given the big numbers the Lions have been giving up all year, there’s no reason to think a dynamic offense like Green Bay’s won’t follow suit.
Must Sit: Joe Flacco . Coming off a 3 TD performance at home vs. the Browns, the gut feeling to ride the hot hand would not be something I’d advise this week against the Steelers defense ranked 2nd in the NFL. In an early season division game, both defenses should be highly active in this pivotal game. Flacco has had some games in his career with quite a few turnovers. If you quality other option, start that QB. If not, I’d recommend hitting the waiver wire for a one week QB with a good match up. Avoid starting Flacco at all costs.
Sleeper: Owen Daniels . With Johnson hobbled with an ankle injury as well as likely dealing with Raiders corner Nnamdi Asomugha, Daniels could have first strong week of the season. Walters will likely still take catches from Daniels but for a team heavily reliant on the pass, there should be enough balls to go around. There are certainly stronger starts this week at TE but if you’re looking for a bye week replacement or if your key TE has a bad match up, this wouldn’t be a bad place to look.
Bust: Anquan Boldin . This goes back to my must sit. The Ravens air attack should be much less successful this week vs. the Steelers after Boldin went crazy on Cleveland. He’s a WR who you basically can’t sit and that’s why he falls in the bust category. This game will likely be decided by the running game of the two teams as well as the turnover margin. Boldin had a strong week 1 vs. the Jets secondary so it’s not impossible he could play well against another secondary, but I’d lean towards a down week from Boldin.
K. M. Venne-
Must Start: Greg Olsen. Olsen has scored 21 fantasy points in the last two weeks in standard CBS leagues, yet is only OWNED in 66% of leagues and started in 31%. If you don’t own Gates, Keller, or Clark, odds are Greg Olsen is a better TE then the one you are starting right now, that’s the bottom line. Facing the New York Giants, a team on the brink of disaster, Olsen should be a great start. He always has a slight chance of putting up a 1-2 point game, but his strong chances to get to double digits far outweigh the risk of a bad start.
Must Sit: All Baltimore running backs. Yes, if Ray Rice plays, you should sit him. And if Rice sits, you should ignore McGahee at all costs. The Steelers are a powerful defense, and the Ravens passing game started to click week 3, and I don’t see Baltimore wasting any time trying to fight the brick wall that is the Pittsburgh run defense when they can attempt to get something via the air. Don’t waste your time with the Ravens running backs this week.
Sleeper: Darrius Heyward-Bey. Listen the hell up, you losers. You need a game changing performance this week? Darrius Heyward-Bey is your dude. He got THIRTEEN targets week 2, and ELEVEN during week 3. He is facing Houston, who is so damn bad in the secondary they let Roy E. Williams get 2 TD’s on them. Heyward-Bay may not be great, but he’s not Roy Williams bad. Darrius Heyward-Bay might just have the game of his career this week. And he’s only owned in 15% of leagues. If you need a WR this week, and you go somewhere other than Heyward-Bey, you are doing yourself a disservice. Swallow your pride, forget your preconceived notions about Heyward-Bey, and get a win this week.
Bust: Tom Brady – Miami has been a house of horrors for Brady in his career. In fact, the entire team has always given Brady fits. Brady only has 3 games of 3 TD’s vs. the Fins, just 3 games of 300 yards, been held under 200 yards 50% of the time, you get the idea. New England may attempt to play a more balanced game in an effort to control the clock and keep the inexperienced defense off the field, to avoid the mismatch that Brandon Marshall presents, and I could see Brady falling well below the 24 projected fantasy points that CBS has him for this week. If you have a high quality backup, this may be a good time to go to him.
Must Start: Dustin Keller
Dustin Keller has two consecutive weeks of at least 6 catches, 90 yards, and one TD, but for some reason only 65% of CBS fantasy owners are starting him. Let’s look at the Jets upcoming opponent to see how this talented TE should fair.
There was no standout last week against the Patriots, but Tom Brady was able to put up 252 yards with 3 TDs. Aaron Hernandez led the team with 6 receptions and 65 yards, but did not score a TD. Those honors were left to New England’s other TE, Rob Gronkowski, and standout WR Randy Moss. If you look at the combined numbers at the TE position, that is 9 receptions, 108 yards, and 1 TD.
Now, how about we look at the Bills game against the Packers, who also have a very talented TE. In this game Jermichael Finley had 4 receptions for 103 yards, but no TDs. If we go back another week we see Miami’s TE Anthony Fasano, and let me remind you he is not one of Henne’s top 2 targets, get 3 receptions for 46 yards.
If we take these three games so far this season and average out the totals, it is an average of around 5 receptions and 85 yards per game. As you can imagine, those are pretty good totals. Now, lets go back to the main player in question.
If we look at all the games this year, including NY’s 10-9 loss to Baltimore, Keller has lead the team in receptions each game, and is arguably Mark Sanchez’s favorite target by a long shot. Even thought this game is in Buffalo, I see a great performance on both ends for the Jets, but most importantly on the offensive side of the ball. I think you can expect 6 catches, 80 yards, and a TD minimum for Keller as an absolute must start.
Must Sit: Greg Olsen
Ironically enough, I am going to go with another TE here. After somewhat of a breakout game against the Packers, some of you might be tempted to give Greg Olsen a start this week in hopes of a hot streak on his part. That my friend would be a horrible decision.
So far this year when not facing an elite pocket QB the Giants have had pretty impressive numbers in the pass defense, being ranked 4th overall this year. They have also done quite well in stopping the other teams TE, once again not counting the game against Indy.
Cutler is not yet an elite QB in this league, as he showed by nearly being picked off multiple times this past Sunday. Greg Olsen, although talented, is still not capable of putting up consistent numbers week in and week out. This should be one of those down weeks. I expect 4 receptions for 45 yards, which is far from impressive, and nowhere near starter worthy.
Sleeper: Kevin Boss
Noticing a trend here? Believe it or not, the Bears have not been able to cover the opposing teams TE. Week one they allowed 7 catches and 49 yards to Detroit’s duo. Two weeks ago Dallas’ pair dropped 12 catches and 96 yards on them. The latest example against the Packers, Jermichael Finley put up a whopping 9 catches and 115 yards on these guys. It goes without question; you can throw on the Bears.
Boss was injured week one which caused him to miss week two. Last Sunday he was able to come back and have a nice showing against the Titans. Expect him to do just as well or better this wee with 6 catches and 70 yards. He isn’t a guy I’d be screaming to start, but if you have a player on a bye, out on injury, or just no good option at the position, I’d give Boss a chance.
Bust: Tony Scheffler
Some of you might be on the Scheffler band wagon that started a few years back, and honestly I don’t blame you, but there is no way he duplicates his numbers from last week, which were pretty solid for a TE in any league. He has an atrocious QB throwing to him, and I see the Lions running a lot of screens and run plays to counteract the rush of that Packers D. I could be wrong on that part, but that doesn’t change the opinion that Scheffler will have a bad game. 3 catches, 37 yards here for this guy.
Must Start: Mark Sanchez: Going against a completely awful Bills defense, the Dirty Sanchez needs to see the field for your team this week.
The Bills have given up an avg of 221 passing yards per game, but more alarmingly is the 68% completion rate with NO INT’S ON THE YEAR. This will be the biggest statistical game of the season for Sanchez and I don’t think you want to miss out on that.
If you can piggy back a must start Dustin Keller as well, I see a huge weekend in this duo’s future.
Must Sit: Any Giants Running Back: It most likely will be Ahmad Bradshaw with splices of Brandon Jacobs, but this week, the Giants will find no running lanes opening up for them.
The Bears defense is giving up only 2.1 yards per carry so far this season, and while they haven’t faced any dominant backs, I don’t see that number doubling this weekend.
Bradshaw should not be your number one back to begin with, so look to get another option, Peyton Hillis or Mike Tolbert if available.
Sleeper: Justin Forsett: The Rams are giving up yardage on the ground faster than the Democrats are giving bail out money away.
Forsett is seeing the bulk of the carries for the Seahawks, and won’t want to get into a pass happy game this week with the Rams likely being without their best runner.
The Seahawks have not really opened up the running game yet, only 21 carries a game thus far, and I look for that to change this week.
If you have a solid #1 back and are looking for a Sleeper who can truly put you over the top, this might be the week to roll the dice with Forsett.
Bust: The Cincinnati passing game. I took another team concept here, but I know that most leagues have a team starting at least one of these three guys.
The problem is that the Cleveland defense is giving up under 200 yards passing a game. Add into that the fact that Carson Palmer is awful, and you have a mix for an absolutely disastrous week from Chad Ochocinco and Terrel Owens.
Start anyone else you can find.