So maybe this week’s games aren’t the greatest. Consider this the Drew Barrymore of Sexy Sixes, not ideal, but get a few cold ones in you and Im sure you can find the sexiness of this weekend. Myself and K.M are back this week to give you a breakdown of the Six Sexiest games of the weekend. Before we get to them though, let me pass the mic to my good friend K.M for a brief message…….
I got a challenge for all of you. Take the best 6 college football games of the week, the ranked matchup, the marquee games with the national TV audiences, the ones everyone is talkin’ about, and try to predict the outcomes of those games. Do it against the spread.
Then go 6-0.
What do you win if you pull it off? The chance to call yourself my equal, because that is exactly what I, K.M. Venne, pulled off last week.
But even if you do it, it’s unlikely to be as impressive as the way I did it, calling South Carolina straight up, calling Michigan State straight up, calling LSU straight up, covering USC with ease, not falling for that Miami trap line, and laughing in the face of the danger that was Arkansas heading to Jerry’s World. In short, K.M. Venne means I’m better then you.
Were you following us? Well, it’s not too late to start paying attention. That’s 10-2 ATS in the two weeks of the Sexy Six for K.M., and my partner in crime managed to duck through the weeds of last week to hit his second week just losing the vig. Hey, we are picking the toughest 6 games of the week, the big games, the national TV games, the games that get the biggest handle, the games with the tightest lines Vegas can manage, so 10-2 for one of us and 5-1 on our Hot Hook-Ups , which is when we both agree on a side against the number, that’s victory on an epic scale. .500 on these games is a win. 10-2 and a 5-1 consensus on these games? That’s a miracle. Or the work of college football savants. Which? That’s for you to decide.
Argue if you want…
Agree if you feel us…
Ignore at your own peril.
This is the Sexy Six.
Illinois at Michigan St. (-7)
K.M. – The Illini picked up a nice for them win over Penn State last week, and some people may be feeling that Ron Zook’s team has turned a corner. To assume that, however, is to overestimate the Zooker and what he is capible of. Meanwhile, Michigan State is coming off an emotional win of their own over rival Michigan, and also faces the possibility of a let down. Michigan State is going to be a popular pick, but it’s important to remember that they benefitted from some red zone turnovers last week to beat Michigan as convincingly as they did. I think Illinois presents a tough defensive test for the Spartans running game, The Illini are only allowng 17 ppg on a schedule that is of good quality, with Mizzou and OSU and PSU already played. Both teams are run heavy, meaning we can expect a game of low possesions and your typical cloud of dust Big 10 action, and that does not behoove anyone who is asked to win by over a full touchdown. I see a low scoring affair that the Spartans win, but closer then the experts have it.
Prediction: Michigan State 24 Illinois 20
Bryan: Michigan State enters this game as a rising team with another marquee win over Michigan on the road last week. Illinois has routed Penn St. and played Ohio St. close at home. Both teams rely heavily on their backs, MSU the combo of Baker and Bell, Illinois with Mikel Leshoure in the backfield. Both have also been fairly decent against the run, MSU 25th in the nation, Illinois 32nd. Neither team should control the clock in this game, and it might end up coming moreso down to the QB position and which team can make a play when forced into a passing situation. Illinois QB Nathan Scheelhaase hasn’t been called on much this year to make plays while Kirk Cousins has quietly had a very productive season for the Spartans. At home, coming off a big win and with two challenging road games coming up in the next two weeks, I like Michigan State to come out with a full team effort in this game and keep their elite status for another week, even if I don’t feel they deserve it. Illinois will be able to keep it close most of the game but BARELY, I like Michigan State to lay the points this week.
Prediction: Michigan State 27 Illinois 17
Iowa at Michigan (+3)
K.M. – Iowa brings a top defense in all the land into the Big House to take on Denard Robinson and the persona non grata defense of the Wolverines, and on first glance, it’s hard to figure out how the heck the Wolverines have a shot in this one. Iowa offers a balanced attack and a stifiling defense that is barely allowing 10 points a game, while Michigan seems to allow 10 points a quarter. However, Iowa’s only road test so far this year was a loss to Arizona where the Hawkeyes were bottled up in crunch time and made to look anemic, and this Michigan team brings the superior athletes to the table and should have a chance for offensive success. Michigan had a chance to make their game last week a lot closer then the scoreboard indicated, while Iowa has yet to pass a true test, only beating a Penn State team that seemed to be of a mediocre at best quality. Give me the Wolverines, maybe I’m grasping for straws here, but I’ll take the more athletic team when push comes to shove, and I see Shoelace re-inserting himself back into the Heisman talks with a great performance that leaves the Hawkeyes regrouping.
Prediction: Michigan 31, Iowa 27
Bryan: K.M made my case for me just about in this game. Michigan State has a decent defense, and Shoelace wasn’t his dominant self last week. Iowa brings one of the best defenses in the country into the Big House where you know Kirk Ferentz will have his squad taking Robinson’s run game away and forcing him to beat them with his arm which Im still not convinced they can do. Averaging only one turnover per game, Im not convinced Michigan’s D will be able to slow Ricky Stanzi and Iowa enough to give Shoelace the chances to beat them in crunch time. Iowa did fail in its one challenge this year, there is no disputing that but even that game it was really only a terrible start that took them out of that game. I don’t see Michigan being able to get the big stops when they need one, and I don’t believe Robinson can beat Iowa himself with his feet. Once again, if your a betting man, lay the points in this one. Iowa will cover easily.
Prediction: Iowa 30 Michigan 20
Arkansas at Auburn (-3.5)
K.M. – The easy pick here is Arkansas, a trendy choice to beat the number on this small line. Arkansas passes the ball as well as anyone in the NCAA, and while they feature a rushing attack that should probably get you kicked out of the SEC, they make up for it with an underrated defense that does not give up very many points. Meanwhile Auburn is nearly the opposite, a top rushing game, an adaquate passing game, and a defense that has given up it’s fair share of points. Auburn’s in a good spot here, however, coming off a game they dominated vs. Kentucky, only to allow Kentucky back into the game and win on a late field goal, making for that sweet duo of a good game that will also lead to a focused week of practice, and I expect Auburn to bring their best at home, and I think they can take this game in a decent scoring affair by a comfortable enough margin, as I just see Arkansas having an off game in a tough enviroment, bottom line.
Prediction: Auburn 30, Arkansas 20
Bryan: K.M. does make a strong argument for Auburn coming to play. Im sure Gene Chizik will be in his defense’s ears after last week’s showing at Kentucky. Im personally just not sipping the Auburn kool-aid yet. As a Clemson fan, I saw this team struggle to beat our mediocre team this year. I saw them struggle to beat Mississippi St. I saw them struggle to beat Kentucky. Cam Newton is good, but Im convinced if you force him to throw, Auburn can be beat. And I know he’s the nation’s most efficient passer, but most of that is because he doesn’t have to throw much. Auburn’s D hasn’t been great this year and I think Ryan Mallet can expose their secondary over the course of the game for some big plays. I’ve been waiting to pick against Auburn all year and I think this is a good week to do so. Though Arkansas is a very good team, Auburn might possibly be looking ahead to next week’s showdown with LSU which if they win this week will be a battle for first place. In a highly competitive game where I think points will come in bunches, Im liking Arkansas to pull the slight upset, if it can qualify as that. Take the points.
Prediction: Arkansas 34 Auburn 30
Ohio State at Wisconsin (+3.5)
K.M. – A very much anticipated game on what is overall a below average Saturday, #1 Ohio State heads into Madtown to take on the Badgers. I doubt Ohio State really requires any introduction to the college football savvy, but the Wisconsin Badgers bear some serious analysis on how they might be able to match up. More balanced then you think, Wisconsin can run very well behind two excellent backs including the tough as nails John Clay, throw the ball pretty well, and can put up points. Again, like Iowa, OSU got a test in their only previous road game, letting the Illini hang around for far too long. OSU walks into their toughest test they may have all year when you consider the team, it’s strenghts, and the stadium. If you are going to pick Ohio State to lose, this is the game you have to do it. I do predict Ohio State will not go undefeated this year, so I’m going to go with the most likely option if that happens, and take Bucky in the minor upset, and getting over a full field goal and the home team, I have to feel pretty good about the Badgers on the spread.
Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Ohio State 21
Bryan: Brutal, Brutal, Brutal game right here to pick. Vegas is probably licking their chops in this one. The Buckeyes overall this year haven’t been challenged much yet, and you could argue as K did, struggled in the one game where they faced adversity. Terrell Pryor to me is still a risky QB to put a ton of faith in. Wisconsin by all accounts had this game won last year in Columbus if not for a kickoff TD and 2 Pick 6′s I believe. K is right. Outside of maybe at Iowa, this is the game I would feel most comfortable going against Ohio St., especially if your giving me points. Before the year I said Ohio St. would not play for the title and Pryor wouldn’t win the Heisman. I won’t say my NCG because that would just kill my credibility. And yet somehow I just can’t bring myself to pick the Badgers in this one. Barring a monster game from John Clay whose been great all year, I can’t see Wisconsin punching TD’s in against this Ohio St. defense. I don’t have a ton of faith in this pick, but ever so slightly, Im taking Ohio St.
Prediction: Ohio St. 27 Wisconsin 26
Oklahoma St. vs. Texas Tech (-3.5)
K.M. – Not much seperates these two teams. Both teams throw the hell out of the football, and are top 5 in total passing yards. Both teams score the ball well, at over 35 points a game. Both teams let up about 30 points a game. Oklahoma State doesn’t have a very notable win, Texas Tech has two losses, including a bad one at Iowa State. Texas Tech may be home, but OSU has the gamebreaker for me, a rushing attack that includes Kendall Hunter, one of the most underrated backs in the NCAA. Oklahoma’s States balance will help them avoid being stopped, and believe me, stops will be at a premium in this one. I’ll walk into the possible trap and lay the points with the road ranked team, because I think OSU is an undervalued team right now and better then most people give them credit for, and a trip to Texas Tech isn’t enough to shake my (over?) confidence in the Cowboys to become a noisemaker in the Big 12 before the season is done.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 45, Texas Tech 34
Bryan: If I could, I would just take K’s analysis and paste it to mine. As he said, neither one of these teams should struggle to move the ball in this game with the plethora of offensive talent on each team and the mediocre defenses each team counters with. Oklahoma St. has had its share of close games, specifically Texas A&M at home where they needed a late INT to win it. Texas Tech is still an offensive juggernaught, even under Tommy Tubberville. The most important thing to me in this game is Kendall Hunter who Oklahoma St. can turn to on 3rd and short situations or even to minimize the yardage on 2nd down. I think the better balance (as K alluded to) from Oklahoma St. will prove to be the big difference in this game. Home field may keep this game competitive, but given 3.5 points and the better team, and I can’t turn that down.
Prediction: Oklahoma St. 34 Texas Tech 28
Hot Hook Up: Oklahoma St. and the points
Cal at USC (-2.5)
K.M. – 2 loss Cal! 2 loss USC! It’s a game that’s kinda sad to make the top 6 games of the week! But these are two pretty good teams, despite the stumbles. Cal has establlished itself a pretty solid rushing attack so far this year, while USC has had no problems moving the football, just stopping others from doing the same. A lot of people are low on USC after two straight losses and some questionable performances before then, and perhaps rightfully so, this does not always resemble the USC we are used to seeing. But Cal is 0-2 on the road so far, including a loss to Nevada, which might be the best estimation to the level of offensive firepower that USC is capilbe of. Bottom line, you can get the better team, the better offense, and the better talent on defense in this game, at home, and lay less then a field goal. If that’s stupid, then I’m retarded. Give me the team with the best weapons and home field every time, you can be down on the Trojans, I’ll be up on my Saturday after I take USC to the pay window. USC won’t make it pretty, but they will get the win they need against a bad road team.
Prediction: USC 20, Cal 10
Bryan: USC has been on the wrong end of two straight last second field goal losses. The offense for USC has never been the question. Its been the defense each week that has people concerned. Cal is coming into a game where outside a close last-minute loss to Arizona, they haven’t proven anything all year other than a good team like Nevada can blow them out. Personally, I think USC is way overdue for a win, even if I won’t be pulling for them. At home, asking me to give up only 2.5 to a team who I’ve seen nothing from all year to suggest they’re capable of going on the road and grabbing a big road win, give me the Trojans at home, and lay the points.
Prediction: USC 33 Cal 17
Hot Hook Up: USC and laying points
K.M. 8-4 SU, 10-2 ATS
Bryan: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS
Hot Hook-Up: 5-1 ATS