Its the last week of the regular season in CFB which means the final installment of the Sexy Six for this season with K.M and myself. Overall, I can’t complain too much, I’ve had fun and we’ve won. What more could you ask for? How about one more good slate of games? Well, don’t be greedy. Your not getting one. Per usual, we here at The Sports Headquarters like to compare our slate each week to a female in the public eye. Well after deliberation for a while, we couldn’t find one. So lets just put it this way. You want to know what this weekend is? This weekend is that really cute girl at a bar that you meet, convince to leave with you, and everything looks good til you get her in the sack and she tells you that you better have a condom because she’s had chlamydia. From the outside, this weekend’s CFB slate looks great. Championship games. A #1 team playing a rival for a title game spot. And a small program on the verge of the BCS. Yet, you’ll likely be disappointed. We don’t forsee many competitive games. But THAT’S OK. Hell, its College Football. Even when its poor, its great. So sit-down, relax, grab a beer, and enjoy the final week of the greatest sport in America.
On the year so far we’ve been pretty solid. K.M is 35-19 straight up and a very respectable 31-22-1 against the number. I on the other hand, the slacker of the group, come in at 34-20 straight up, but only 28-25-1 against the number.
When we agree on a game against the spread, its called our Hot Hook Up. These are the bets each week that we feel best about as a team. In these games, we are 17-12-1. Not amazing, but just under a 60% success rate. Pretty good if you are a big gambler. Nonetheless, why hold you up any longer from money-making bets.
You may not agree, you may not understand why, but you damn sure will be entertained. This is your Final Sexy Six….
Uconn @ South Florida (-1.5)
K.M.: I find it a bit strange that almost every bowl projection you see has UConn winning the Big East. I’m currently of the opinion that the Big East is most likely to send the dumbest member to the BCS it can possibly manage. The Big East seems to continue to fail at every turn, with anyone who has the ability to control it’s own destiny failing to do so. The only possible logical conclusion for the Big East race is for someone to totally back into the Big East title. I don’t know exactly who that will be, but I know UConn is the current favorite, so I currently don’t like their chances. TheBulls are currently buoyed by the biggest win in program history, beating a sorry Miami team, which is odd to me, considering USF has been ranked as high as #2 before and beat a Florida State team last year that was better then the Miami team this year. But I guess in today’s world, the win you had last week is the biggest win ever. Knee-jerk reactions probably are overinflating this line, because on paper, I see UConn as the tougher team. This leaves me in an odd place, with a USF team I think is overvalued vs. a UConn team I think is ripe for failure. I guess when in doubt, bet on the Big East to stink, so that means taking South Florida, much as I don’t like to. Not like I like the alternative any more, and at least I got the home team.
Prediction: South Florida 24, UConn 21
Bryan: This game means very little to South Florida. They cannot win the Big East. They are bowl eligible. Uconn is playing the biggest game in the programs history. As a New England resident, I honestly don’t care about Uconn anything. Only feelings about Uconn are my hate for their women’s basketball team. But otherwise they mean little to me. But I like to see my people happy and Uconn in the BCS would make that happen. Uconn goes as Jordan Todman goes. This is no secret by now. USF is pretty stout defensively though and I expect them to throw the kitchen sink at Todman to try and stop him. USF also is miserable offensively though. Not just one-dimensional. They literally don’t do anything well on offense. I don’t think this game will see many points. So I’m going to ride one superstar over no superstars because 1st grade math taught me 1 > 0. Uconn is going to do the unthinkable and earn a BCS spot. At that point they will earn the right to be gutted in the Fiesta Bowl or maybe play competitive in an Orange Bowl loss. In either case, their winning ends tomorrow.
Prediction: Uconn 20 South Florida 14
Oregon @ Oregon St. (+16.5)
K.M.: Let me put this as simply as I can. Oregon is a solid team that needs to have an impressive game going into the BCS title game. Oregon State is terrible. The Civil War will bring out the best in Oregon State. Sadly, Oregon State’s best isn’t very good. Oregon. Big.
Prediction: Oregon 43, Oregon State 17
Bryan: For weeks I’ve been very confident in Oregon. Since the USC game I said they would play for the title. And I said this with all the confidence in the world. Yet, these rivalry games always worry me. So am I taking the Beavers? Hell no. Their defense is terrible and Oregon will go up and down the field on it. But Im pretty sure Oregon St. is going to put up points in this game. Their statistics don’t tell the whole picture. There are not 92 better offenses in college football than Oregon St’s. Oregon’s D is suspect. Capable of giving up points and I think Oregon St. will score. But they can’t score like Oregon. Few teams can. Im not worried about the win. Im worried about the cover. But I don’t want to ruin a hot hook up on dumb second guesses. So Im laying the points with Oregon. They’ll be playing for the title next time we talk about them.
Prediction: Oregon 55 Oregon St. 28
Hot Hook Up: Oregon laying the Points
Auburn vs. South Carolina (+5.5)
K.M.: Here is the game we all greatly care about. Cam Newton is eligible, after being ruled ineligible, which is probably the greatest secret I’ve seen in a long time. Seriously, how the hell did someone not leak the fact that Cam Newton was ruled ineligible for a day? In today’s 24-7 news cycle, for this fact not to be reported and over-analyzed is a huge upset. I have no clue how anyone keeps a secret these days. It befuddles me. On the field, Auburn will walk into a neutral site with the confidence of already having a win over South Carolina this year. This game comes down to one big factor, can Stephen Garcia keep the football? If Garcia can keep Cocky’s offense on the field, then Lattimore and Jeffery can make some huge plays against the Auburn defense that is usually much more like the one we saw in the first half vs. Bama then the one we saw in the second half. As I’ve previously discussed, Auburn is in a terrible spot, a look ahead game, a let down game after a huge rivalry win, a game where they might not respect their opponent after having beat them already, this is set up for Auburn disaster. Auburn angers me, I admit it, but still, sound gambling logic points to the Gamecocks to have a great shot to pull an upset, and this is the first and maybe last chance South Carolina will ever have to win the entire SEC. South Carolina is not the kind of team that can compete with Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee most years. This is the one year all three are down. It’s now or never for Spurrier’s crew. I predict now.
Prediction: South Carolina 31, Auburn 30
Bryan: This is the small reason I hate co-working with K.M on CFB for TSHQ. Because of games like this. Two weeks ago I thought to myself, “SC might be able to knock off Auburn in the SECCG if Bama doesn’t.” And then after last week’s Iron Bowl that I stand by as the most shocked I’ve ever been after a CFB game, I vowed to pick Auburn here. Going so far as to write in this week’s SSR that “Auburn seems destined for the NCG”. And yet, I’m drinking the kool-aid K.M is selling. Last time Auburn beat SC at home by 8, on a dropped pass from Jeffrey in the endzone that ended up picked. Should have been a 2-pt. attempt for the tie if he caught it. In that game Jeffrey killed them (much like any premier receiver that SC has faced), Lattimore only had 3 carries in the 2nd half, SC turned it over 4 straight possessions in the 4th quarter, and SC’s gameplan centered around stopping Newton’s arm. See what I mean? SC is prepared for this. This is their moment. SC’s defensive strength is the run D, Auburn’s offensive strength. SC, though a balanced offense, is better through the air, Auburn’s defensive weakness. Spurrier is 100 times the coach Chizik is. I still say even if they lose, Auburn should play for the title. But K.M brought me back. We’ve both been lower than 99% of America on Auburn all-year. Why not be wrong again. I’m with K.M. Auburn is going down tomorrow in the SECCG.
Prediction: South Carolina 36 Auburn 34
Hot Hook Up: South Carolina with the points
Florida State vs. Virginia Tech (-4)
K.M.: Here is a dirty secret, FSU owns the Hokies. Always have. Since the 1999 national championship game, the Seminoles have done one thing consistently well, and that is expose an overrated VT team. They beat that 99 team in the National Title game, the one that didn’t beat anyone that had less then 4 wins, they beat the overrated VT team that was a 13.5 point favorite in the ACCCG the only time these two teams have met in the ACCCG, they beat the Hokies in the regular season in the ACC every time except for the last trip to Blacksburg, which was Frank Beamer’s only win over FSU since he took over the Hokies program, and bottom line is FSU always does right when they see VT on the field. I’ve yet to see anyone giving FSU much of a shot in this game. FSU is well coached, VT has flaws, and I think the Noles can win this game.
Prediction: FSU 28, VT 21
Bryan: K.M is spot on. History doesn’t lie and history isn’t kind to Virginia Tech in this matchup. And I’ve always said my #1 rule when betting or predicting is pay attention to history if its relevant. This isn’t the pro’s, so there’s more to history than just players. For example, no matter who the players are, Oklahoma St. almost never beats Oklahoma. Thats why I took Oklahoma on the road last week as an underdog. Too easy. This game’s the same. So if your a fan of history like myself, take Florida State. Im going to be dumb and take Virginia Tech. And I’m going to tell you a bunch of reasons why, and if they lose I will say “Why didn’t I just throw those out and look at history?” Well first off Tyrod Taylor has been great with the ball this year. He just hasn’t turned it over which is always so big in these championship games. Secondly FSU has really only one impressive ACC win, that coming over Miami. And don’t give me Maryland. Maryland is trash. I saw them with my eyes against Clemson. FSU lost to NCST. Lost to UNC. Should have lost to my Clemson Tigers. Struggled with BC. VT on the other hand beat everyone they played. And most of the time did so convincingly. VT is very balanced offensively and defensively, not too reliant on one unit. FSU’s D has been great at setting up turnovers this year. If they can’t force turnovers I don’t think they can win this game talent for talent, and given the point I gave you on Taylor, I don’t think they will. Take the Hokies.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 30 Florida St. 21
Nebraska vs. Oklahoma (-4.5)
K.M: Nebraska has huge questions in this game. Can they find their offense? Will the Big 12 screw them? Will their fans murder the Big 12 commissioner? How much more whining can this team do out the door? All fair questions. One question I don’t have about them is “Can they beat the Sooners?”. Because that answer is no. It is Oklahoma’s destiny to win the Big 12 and lose a BCS game to some sorry team. Big Game Bob needs a big game to lose. This isn’t a big game, this is a game to play a big game. So he has to win this to live up to his name. It only makes sense. Oklahoma just has so many weapons on offense, they should give the Blackshirts trouble, because most teams with highly skilled talents have given Nebraska’s D fits. It seems to me that if you have 4 and 5 stars on your team, you can score big points on Nebraska, and if you don’t, then Nebraska will shut you down. OU has the talent, so I expect them to start laying the points on the board. As I’ve said for the last month, the only reason to watch this game will be to watch the two kids throw the footballs into the Dr. Pepper cans, which is fun to gamble on with a friend. But ignore this football, it’s probably going to be terrible.
Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Nebraska 20
Bryan: Well Taylor Martinez is seriously hurting to the surprise of nobody. Whether he plays or not, I can’t see him being that effective. And that hurts Nebraska who isn’t nearly as potent offensively when he’s out. And that’s not a good sign when you go into a game against the Sooners who can score in bunches and enter this game scorching hot. As K.M said, Nebraska’s D, though talented, is vulnerable. Oklahoma St. put up 41 on it. Hell, IOWA ST. dropped 30 on it. They aren’t world-beaters, and the way Landry Jones has been chucking the ball around, with Ryan Broyles, DeMarco Murray, and the rest of the cast, the Sooners offense shouldn’t be held down too much in this game. Its a classic CFB rivalry that is coming to an end this year. So for the last time, tune in and enjoy it, even if it isn’t a great championship game. Lay the points.
Prediction: Oklahoma 34 Nebraska 23
Hot Hook Up: Oklahoma laying the points
San Jose St. @ Idaho (-13.5)
K.M: This is the best game of the week. Because I’m betting on it. Why? Because I am the college football gambling equivalent of Parker Lewis. I can’t lose. And because they’re are only 5 good games this week, so what better way to prove my inherent dominance over college football then to predict the worst game of the week correctly?
Idaho are called the Vandals. Underrated nickname, by the way. Sounds like a gang that cleaned out New Orleans after Katrina hit. San Jose State are called the Spartans. Both teams have yellow on their jerseys. That is all I know about them before I used the internet. After using the internet, I see that San Jose St. is somehow even worse then I thought they were. They lost to UC Davis, which isn’t that bad, UC Davis is a I-AA powerhouse (as far as I remember, I don’t feel like looking that up), and their only win was Southern Utah. By 5. Can you name a city in Southern Utah? I know I can’t. San Jose St also lost to New Mexico St, who I think has been outscored by 1000 points this season. I don’t even care about Idaho, I honestly didn’t look up fact one about them. They arn’t San Jose St. So I’m picking them. GO RANDOM ACTION GO!
Prediction: Idaho 40, San Jose St 20
Bryan: S-E-X-Y. You see, we almost went with 5 games, and then I said “What the hell, lets do the most mediocre game we can find.” BAM! Here it is. Hell, we’re both over .500% Straight up. Both over .500% against the spread (which picking the 6 best games each week is pretty good), and we’re over .500% when we agree. So we’ve earned the right to do this. And hell, if history’s an indication (as I mentioned earlier), you should play our bet here. I saw a quarter of Idaho this year. Against Boise. And my oh my, were they god awful. Dropped passes, holds, burnt in coverage, couldn’t tackle. You name it. Now undoubtedly Boise played a part in that. But I’m stunned that a team could be 14 points worse than Idaho. So congrats San Jose St. You must truly suck. It’s in Idaho. And what the hell, what’s one more hot hook up on our regular season record? LAY THE POINTS!!
Prediction: Does it matter? For kicks I’ll say Idaho 38 San Jose St. 21