2011 NBA Draft: Best Case/Worst Case Player Prospects

Posted by on May 27th, 2011


With the NBA draft fast approaching and the draft lottery settled, the draft experts at TSHQ decided to take a crack at the NBA Draft.

Today we have Cole Zwicker, Lakers fan and leader of the Mike Brown fan club joining me, Seth, as we journey through our top 20 prospects, and give them the labels that a lot of draft nics are afraid of.

We want fans to be excited about the prospects they may be drafting in the next month, or terrified of what that player may actually become.

Reality is that most of these players will most likely fall in between their best case and worst case scenarios, but it is always fun to look at a player and project the future.

So enjoy and let us know what you think.

Kyrie Irving- Cole

Best Case: Chris Paul

Irving is a true point guard with no real weaknesses in his game. He’s solid across the board as a penetrator, distributor and a scorer. His biggest strength is his quick burst to get by his defender into the lane and either find open teammates or finish, an attribute that is quintessential in today’s point guard driven game. Both his three point shot (46%) and on ball defense are also solid, making him the total package. He isn’t a superb athlete in the Rose/Westbrook mold but what he lacks in supreme athleticism he makes up for with his smarts.

Its high praise comparing Irving to the best point guard in basketball, but the foundation is there. Paul developed an unparalleled court vision and passing ability during his early years in the league which made him elite. Irving will have to do the same to reach that level.

Worst Case: Mike Conley

No point guard screams good at mostly everything but not elite in any specific category like Conley. Irving’s floor if doesn’t develop that keen court sense and high basketball IQ having not played a lot in college is around the 12th-15th best lead guard in the league, ala Mike. He’ll be solid in every facet of the game for sure, but he could be great.


Enes Kanter- Cole

Best Case: Al Horford

Kanter is the anti-stereotypical European player: he’s tough, strong, he rebounds, and most importantly, he actually seeks out contact. Don’t get me wrong, Kanter isn’t just a bruiser. He also possesses legitimate skill in the post due to his footwork and ability to position himself down low. Additionally he has an established jumper that extends out to the three point line to keep defenses honest and can run the floor well for his size (6-10 260).

Similar to Horford he’s not a tremendous athlete and he isn’t a shot blocker. If Kanter is drafted by a team like the T-Wolves who try to slot him in at center he may be a bit undersized to excel. He projects much better as a power forward.

Worst Case: Very Rich Man’s Zaza Pachulia

I know, slap in the face right? The thing with Kanter is due to the fact he missed his entire freshman year at Kentucky (suspension by the NCAA) there isn’t a lot to draw from in terms of projecting his impact. Basically the only tape we have of him was at the Nike Hoops Summit a year ago in which he broke Dirks scoring record putting up 33 & 14. If his skill set doesn’t translate at the very least he’ll be a physical inside banger who competes for rebounds, like our good friend Zaza.

Derrick Williams- Cole

Best Case: More Athletic David West

D-will is your prototypical stretch 4. He’s an excellent scorer facing the basket, possessing the athleticism to get by bigger players and the efficient jumper to knock down either mid range shots or threes. While he believes he can play the 3 in the NBA he isn’t slight of foot enough to defend small forwards. He’ll be much more valuable to teams as a 4.

Williams is obviously a better athlete than West with superior finishing skills but like West the role that will likely capitalize on his talents the most is as a deadly pick & roll or pick & pop guy. If Williams somehow ends up on a team like Cleveland with a Kyrie Irving he could be a devastating scorer as a stretch 4 due to the matchup problems he’d cause with his versatility.

Worst Case: Michael Beasley

You can pretty much insert any unsuccessful 3-4 tweener here. Beasley has found a niche as a scorer in Minnesota but he clearly can’t defend threes, so his team suffers as a result. Williams will likely follow a similar path if he is put in the wrong situation.

Brandon Knight- Cole

Best Case: Jason Terry

Knight is a combo guard, but a great one at that. He is explosive, can handle the rock, has deadly range on his jumper and can play stifling D. The problem is he doesn’t possess true point guard instincts and at 6-3 is undersized to play off the ball as a starter.

Brandon definitely seems to have that Terry streaky shooter DNA, not to mention he’s proven to be an excellent clutch scorer. His skills would best be utilized similarly to Terry’s as a scoring 6th man off the bench who can also play some backup point as well. He would be an excellent fit in the triangle if the Lakers still ran it though.

Worst Case: Louis Williams

A streak shooting tweener is probably Knight’s floor. He’ll find a niche in the league with his three point shot and electric scoring ability, similar to Lou Williams.

Jan Vesely- Seth
Best Case: Taller Shawn Marion
Vesely has unreal length and athleticism for a player his size. He moves extremely well, finish well at the rim and is developing as a shooter. The biggest issue, his build: At only 230lbs he is extremely thin and lacks natural strength, but that should get better once he gets into the league.
So why not take the easy way out and compare him to Andrei Kirilenko? Because he has a higher ceiling than AK47, and can approach Shawn Marion territory in being a better offensive and defensive player than Kirilenko was at his apex as well as being the Swiss army knife on defense that Marion was.
Worst Case: Insert Euro Here
Seriously how many outstanding Euro “Talents” have just been huge busts? He needs to get stronger, he needs to develop a consistent outside shot, and he needs to be able to make a move with more than just 2-3 dribbles.
The biggest thing: He needs to get better at rebounding. If he lands on a team like the Warriors, Suns, Raptors, etc. that play with him at a 4 or 5, he has to be able to rebound better than what he has done in Euro ball.
Jonas Valanciunas – Seth
Best Case: Pau Gasol
Fantastic basketball instincts, can pass the ball out of double teams, a plethora of post moves, though he tends to go left a little too much, but is almost ambidextrous so he can get away with it.
Has a good face to the basket game as well, and is developing range, getting to almost 15ft consistently now.
Most importantly, he is aggressive, almost to a fault sometimes, but he does not possess the soft tag that comes with a lot of Euro bigs.
Worst Case: Primo Brezic
Remember when Brezic was supposed to be an impact player in the league? Me either, that is why you have to worry with him.
Can get into foul trouble pretty easily, that was the over aggressiveness I spoke of earlier.
He needs to get a little quicker, and doesn’t have the explosiveness right now to be a dominant player in the league.
Kawhi Leonard- Cole

Best Case: Less Athletic Gerald Wallace

Meet Crash 2.0. Leonard’s motor is second to none. He never stops working, whether that is running the floor, crashing the glass or attacking the rim. Leonard also has the ability to handle the ball and make plays off the dribble for teammates with his passing ability, an impressive attribute for what kind of player he is.

Leonard isn’t the athlete Wallace is but he brings that same ability to impact the outcome of a game purely through hustle and high activity just like Gerald. Similar to Wallace Leonard doesn’t have a credible outside jumper and NBA defenses will surely sag off him. A team like the Wizards who are in desperate need of someone to do the “dirty work” could really use his talents.

Worst Case: More Skilled Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

As mentioned above Leonard really needs to work on his jump shot in order to be legitimate small forward in the league. Apparently he’s been working on it since the end of the season in effort to improve his draft stock. At the very least Leonard will be a high energy 15 mpg guy off the bench who crashes the glass and plays defense.

Kemba Walker- Cole

Best Case: Brandon Jennings

Walker is obviously a big time scorer at the lead guard spot. He’s lightening quick with the ball and is virtually unguardable in isolation situations. While undersized at 6-1 he is athletic enough to blow by defenders and create the necessary space to get his shot off.

Does the description score first point guard, undersized for the position, volume shooter and lightening quick with ball ring a familiarity bell? Jennings regressed in his second season but as a rookie he took the league by storm with his scoring ability. Kemba can have a similar effect.

Worst Case: Aaron Brooks

No one wants to play with a selfish, inefficient shooter and waterbug like Aaron Brooks. Kemba can’t help his height but he can develop at least the necessary distributing skills to keep his teammates content, though to his credit he has much higher character than Brooks. Being exiled to a 10-15 instant offense backup point ala Brooks is the worst it can get for Walker.

Tristan Thompson- Seth
Best Case: Josh Smith
Ok, maybe Thompson won’t develop into the outside threat that Smith has… Hahaha I’m kidding. Thompson has a lot of similar skills as Smith; he is extremely long, with a 7’1” wingspan even though he is only 6’8” (that’s being generous).
He can lock down defensively most 3-5’s and has a lot of ability to develop a consistent offensive game, since most of his points came off of offensive rebounds and garbage baskets.
Worst Case: Hakim Warrick
Warrick plays for the Suns and as a fan; I have watched him show flashes of brilliance, flashes being the key word.
He doesn’t have a consistent game away from the rack, he lacks the ability to make plays on his own, and he really is a eighth to tenth option on a team, not a starter, hell not even a top 7 option.
If he can’t develop an offensive game, he won’t be anything more than a garbage time scrapper.
Bismack Biyombo- Seth
Best Case: Ben Wallace
An undersized defensive, rebounding center/down low power forward that will make any team better defensively right away, as he possesses some unique and not seen very often lateral quickness and explosion.
He has a natural ability to block shots with his 7’7” wingspan and leaping ability and would fit best in an up and down offensive system, Warriors and Suns fans are praying for him to make the fall, to take advantage of his crazy motor and ability to run the floor.
Worst Case: Saer Sene
Remember him? I do, then the Zombie Sonics selected him and that was the end of that.
He has one offensive ability and that is run the floor and get to the basket. He can get you garbage points, and he can run an effective PnR, not really, he can set picks.
He has to get better offensively, or he won’t be able to get on the floor and will be a waste.
Alec Burks- Seth
Best Case: All-Star Eddie Jones
He is fluid and quick offensively, with an insane mid range game, and ability to get the shot off at anytime, anywhere on the floor. Has capable handles and could get into the 24ppg range.
He has a slight build, but being only 18 has the ability to gain weight, and with that enhance his defensive ability to the point of being a very, very good defensive player.
He can become an All-Star in this league, not just a starter.
Worst Case: Larry Hughes
A chucker that forces too many bad shots, a good thief defensively, but too small to defend head up, man to man with a great consistency.
Has to get better at creating for others as well as getting better of moving without the ball in his hands if he is ever going to be more than just a volume scorer, and inefficient offensive threat.
Jordan Hamilton- Seth
Best Case: Joe Johnson
Hamilton has a lot of the same game Johnson had coming out, and the same deficiencies.
Jordan can create off the dribble, get to the rack and score from anywhere when he gets into a rhythm.
He is an adequate defender, but he is also a very good rebounder who has the ability to grab a board and head coast to coast and make plays.
Worst Case: Jared Dudley (more athletic)
Is a bit of a streak shooter, needs to develop the lateral quickness in order to stay in front of smaller players and needs to learn to play defense and not just body up on people, because at the next level he won’t be able to stay on the floor if he doesn’t figure it out defensively.
Chris Singleton- Cole

Best Case: Bigger Ron Artest in his prime

Singleton has one elite talent: defense. He is the best lockdown defender in the draft and can guard 3 positions. His versatility on that side of the ball with his combination of size (6’9), strength and athleticism is unmatched in this class. Singleton isn’t a fluent offensive player with the ball by any means but his spot up shooting, specifically from three (36% this past year) has shown promise.

I doubt Singleton will ever develop into a shot creator or playmaker on offense. His contributions will come off the ball on catch and shoot opportunities or when he has a sizeable mismatch down low due to his strength. Combine that with lockdown defensive potential and you have a bigger version of young Ron Artest, a tenacious defender and enough of a threat shooting the ball to keep defenses honest.

Worst Case Scenario: Bigger Thabo Sefolosha

So much of Singleton’s success in the league will hinge on his development shooting the basketball. If he can shoot in the low 40′s from the field and 38-40% from three he can be an excellent starting three. If not he’ll still carve out a place in the league with his defensive prowess, but like Sefolosha, he’ll never be more than a situational defensive stopper who is a liability on offense.

Marcus Morris- Seth
Best Case: David West meets Al Harrington
A dynamic offensive player that can shoot, take people off the dribble and get to the cup. Attacks the basket with fearlessness and loves to have the ball in his hands and make plays.
Has good size and strength combination that allows him to work hard on defense and stay in front of most players and not get overpowered down low.
Looks good in Pick n’ Pop situations, and seems to be able to rebound well enough to be a viable starting PF.
Worst Case: Al Harrington
If he is an all offense PF that comes in and scores off the bench is that really a bad thing? He has short arms, plays below the rim, and needs to work on his ability to stop bigger players from shooting over the top of him.
Jimmer Fredette- Cole

Best Case: Stronger Mike Bibby in his prime

No, I’m not going to say Steve Nash here no matter how much I want to. “Teach me how to Jimmer” is unquestionably the best marksman in the draft and will most likely be one of the best shooters in the NBA. He has unlimited range and a quick trigger. The question is can he get his shot off in the league with his lack of athleticism.

Jimmer actually tested really well in lane agility drills at the draft combine, so maybe we haven’t seen what he is truly capable of defensively with his coach hiding him so much in zones at BYU to conserve his energy for offense. My gut says he’s quicker than we think and will be a passable defender at lead guard. In that case he may end up starting and his shooting skill coupled with a lack of athleticism is reminiscent of young Mike Bibby. Jimmer is a lot stronger than Mike and has that uncanny ability to use his strength to get in the lane and finish with an array of quirky shots, but in terms of the other skills the two players are actually quite similar.

Worst Case: Eddie House

At worst Jimmer will be the backup point that is given the green light to go out and just fire shots for 10-20 minutes a game off the bench as a source of instant offense. NBA teams are always looking for shooters and Jimmer’s shot making ability will stick somewhere in the league.

Tobias Harris- Seth
Best Case: Ron Artest meets Glen Davis
Harris has a large body, a good frame and a solid, yet unspectacular offensive game. He is a god ball handler for his size, and can get into the lane, and catch and shoot from a good distant. He has long arms and can score from the block, and that is without any real post moves to speak of.
Is a good rebounder for his size and has a natural nose for the ball, which is sure to develop as he gets older, he is only 18.
Worst Case: Ryan Gomes meets Glen Davis
Not overly big for a PF, and isn’t a freak athlete like Derrick Williams. Is a little chubby, that should come off once he hits the NBA gym, but who knows.
Can’t guard small forwards, not overly strong right now, but again, he is only 18.
Kenneth Faried- Cole

Best Case: Paul Millsap

Faried is an absolute beast on the boards, leading the country in rebounding the past 3 seasons. He has a relentless motor and his activity level especially at the rim is phenomenal. Faried is both undersized (6’8) and underweight, so he’ll need to add some strength in order to body up and bang with the bruisers in the NBA.

Millsap is the poster boy of success for undersized power forwards in the league, and while Faried doesn’t have Paul’s midrange game yet (most of his points come off put backs, dunks or layups) their rebounding similarities coming out of college can’t be denied. If Faried can get stronger and develop some kind of midrange game he can be a starter in the league in a few years.

Worst Case: Better Rebounding Lou Amundson

At bare minimum Faried will bring elite rebounding and hustle to the table, which has the makings of a nice limited minute backup 4 to inject a team with energy off the bench, similar to Lou Amundson on the Suns (but with superior rebounding ability).

Klay Thompson- Cole

Best Case: Mike Miller

Behind Fredette Thompson is the most deadeye shooter in the draft from deep. He moves well off the ball to set himself up for shots and has limitless range. At 6’7 Thompson possesses the prototypical height for a shooting guard. Unfortunately he isn’t a good athlete and will struggle with more athletic perimeter players.

Thompson isn’t just a mindless catch and shoot player though. He has a high basketball IQ, has an excellent feel for the game and is a terrific passer. Miller plays a different position than Thompson will, but their skill sets and roles could be similar if Thompson is able to grasp the NBA game and find his spots.

Worst Case: Marco Belinelli

Thompson’s floor is a floor spacer off the bench at the two spot. His shot is just too valuable not to stick. Like Belinelli he may have trouble adjusting to the league at first but ultimately he will at least carve out a spot on some team’s bench.

Josh Selby- Seth
Best Case: Bobby Jackson (not injured))
Jackson was a dynamic scorer in his day, could come off the bench and dominate a game, something that Selby can add to a contender.
Is a pure scorer, outside, inside and a fantastic isolation player.
Worst Case: Jerryd Bayless
Selby isn’t a true PG, can’t create for others, and really can’t defend at the next level because he lacks the size and quickness to body up guards at the next level.
Never going to be an elite starter at the next level, but could develop into a potential sixth man on a contender.
Markief Morris- Seth
Best Case: Lesser Rasheed Wallace
Morris is a deft defender, a good shooter and has a good low post game that can help him succeed at the next level. Very high level of activity on defense and rebounding in only 24mins of action at the college level, so if he gets more time in the NBA, should be productive.
Worst Case: Drew Gooden
A journeyman big, that can’t find a home because he isn’t good enough to be more than just a bit player.
Needs to develop some moves off the dribble, needs to become more consistent as a shooter, and needs to work on his passing and reading of plays as they develop from the high post.

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  • Anonymous

    great article can you should post it somewhere where people will see it.

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