Thoughts From Around the League with Free Agency Lurking Around the Corner. Part 1: Forwards

Posted by on June 30th, 2011


There are a couple of exciting days marked on every hockey fan’s calendar that have nothing to do with what’s happening on the ice. The first is the trade deadline and the second is happening this July 1st, the start of the free agency period. This year’s field may not be the deepest, but there are some very intriguing situations happening. I’ll break it down by position, highlighting some individual players. Tonight, I’ll hit the forwards.

Forwards

How can I start this without first talking about Steven Stamkos. He’s a top 3 goal scorer in the league and many view him as the best pure scorer. Scoring 51 and 45 goals in his last two season (and a not bad 23 goals in his rookie season), he’ll be due for quite a raise. He’s a restricted free agent, meaning that if he goes unsigned by July 1st, a team can put together an offer sheet for him that the Lightning will have to match if they want to keep him. If the Lightning don’t match the offer, Stamkos can sign with the team who made the offer, but that team will be required to compensate the Lightning in draft picks depending on the cap hit of the deal. From puckmeplease.com, the compensation is as follows:

Amount

Compensation Due

$994,433 or below

None

Over $994,433 to $1,506,716

3rd round pick

Over $1,506,716 to $3,013,434

2nd round pick

Over $3,013,434 to $4,520,150

1st and 3rd round pick

Over $4,520,150 to $6,026,867

1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick

Over $6,026,867 to $7,533,584

Two 1st’s, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick

Over $7,533,584

Four 1st round picks

All indications are that Stamkos will sign for at least $7 million, so anyone who’s interested better be ready to cough up some serious draft picks. But whoever’s signing him will be hoping that those picks will be late in the first round. But in my opinion, four 1st round picks for a player like Steven Stamkos is well worth it. He’s an absolute stud and he’s no flash in the pan.

What’s interesting his how Tampa is really taking their time to sign the guy. Maybe they’re having issues negotiating, but now the clock is ticking. They have the cap space (almost $16 million), but they might not be able to afford to have a payroll at the cap limit. That said, they’ve recently resigned Dwayne Roloson, Eric Brewer and Marc-Andre Bergeron to contract extensions with cap hits worth $7.85 million between them. Defense and goaltending are important to have, but it makes you wonder if they’re actually making any progress with Stamkos. And on top of that, forwards Simon Gagne, Teddy Purcell, and Sean Bergenheim are all unsigned.

The teams being named in the offer sheet hunt are the Rangers, Flyers, and Maple Leafs. I’m going to rule out the Flyers, although based on the shocking moves they’ve made in the past week, nothing will surprise me. But Stamkos will just be too expensive for them to make a serious offer without more shedding on salary. The Rangers have a ton of cap space left, but Stamkos might be a little too young and too hard to consider him overrated for the Rangers to land him. They’ve got a bunch of players to sign to reach the NHL roster size as well. Still, New York has waived Chris Drury and his big cap hit, so you never know. Toronto, on the other hand, has the cap space to not only sign Stamkos, but to also sign some quality forwards to round out their lineup.

But when push comes to shove, I feel like Tampa gets it done and signs Stamkos to a longterm deal. There’s just no way to believe that they would let a player that good fall into the hands of another team.

Brad Richards is the biggest name unrestricted free agent name out there. The Stars have known for awhile that he won’t resign with the team, and he has refused to waive his no trade clause, making it well known that he wants to reach free agency and freely choose who to play for. There have been rumors of him going back to Tampa, but with the team needing to resign Stamkos, I doubt that happens. The other interested teams are once again Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Rangers, Buffalo, Colorado, and Los Angeles. I feel like the first three teams will use Richards as a bit of a backup plan for Stamkos, which isn’t a bad idea. Richards, though, is 31 years old and the reports are is that he’s looking for a 9 year deal. That could help out his cap hit, but could rule out Philly and maybe the Kings (the other Richards is signed to a big contract already) who would probably shy away from such a long contract. Still, a long contract could lower the cap hit and make things a little more tempting. And a Giroux/Richards/JVR line sounds awesome.


Colorado is a team I’m not too sure about. They’ve already got Paul Stastny and Matt Duchene as their centers, which is pretty darn good, but there have been some rumors involving Stastny’s name. Personally, I’d rather keep Stastny. Buffalo is an intriguing possibility. Their GM is actually now allowed to spend money, and a 1-2 punch of Richards and Roy would be fun to watch. But with the recent trade to bring Robyn Regehr to the team and the rights to Christian Ehrhoff, they might have to make some room by cutting some salary. Maybe Jochen Hecht could be moved?

I think that either Buffalo or the Rangers will end up with Richards. The Sabres new ownership will want to show their fans that they’re serious about bringing in top players and spending the money to do so. As for the Rangers, they’re always game to spend some big money and age and salary don’t ever really seem to deter them. Also, I’m sure Marion Gaborik wouldn’t mind playing alongside Richards.

Simon Gagne had a bit of a tough year, putting up 17 goals and 40 points in a shortened season due to injury. He won’t be able to sign another contract worth the $5.25 million per year he will soon be off. Many Flyers fans fantasize about Gagne coming back to Philly at a discount, and I don’t see it outside the realm of possibility, but depending on what the team does, it might only be able to happen if it’s a huge discount. I doubt Tampa resigns him unless they strike out with Stamkos. Gagne’s problem is his concussion history. When you get a few concussions, you get the dreaded damaged goods label. It’s a real shame because when he’s healthy, he’s a 35+ goal scorer and an excellent defensive forward. I don’t see Gagne being signed right away and might have to sign a short term contract with a less than ideal situation to try to build his stock up.

Jaromir Jagr wants to come back, and it looks like he’ll be landing in the arms of Mario Lemieux, the man who helped jumpstart his career when he first came into the league. Along with the Penguins, the other teams apparently interested are the Canadiens and Red Wings. I can’t see Jagr in a Wings jersey and they might not even get the chance because the Penguins have apparently offered Jagr a contract. I can’t see it being more than 1 year worth more than a little over $2 million. And to me, that’s a fair offer for the man who is about to turn 40 years old and hasn’t played in the NHL for several years. If he can pot 20 goals for Pittsburgh, Pens fans should be happy.

It’s looking like Erik Cole will be allowed to walk by the Hurricanes. Rumors are that the Flyers are interesting in his services, which makes sense considering his past experience with Flyers coach Peter Laviolette. He could be signed for a reasonable contract and bring some needed size up front for the Flyers, filling a power forward role. His injury record could cause some teams to be a little timid though.

One of the more underrated forwards available this summer will be Scottie Upshall. He’s a high-energy player that is loved wherever he goes. After being buried on the third line on the Flyers, he showed what he could do in Phoenix in a top-6 role, scoring 18 goals in 49 games in 2009-2010 before his season ended due to injury. If he can find himself in a steady scoring role on a steady team, he could raise a few eyebrows. Maybe the Kings make a play for him, reuniting him with Mike Richards and former coach John Stevens.

Ville Leino should be resigned by the Flyers. Whether or not that happens is another story. He wants a raise over his $800,000 salary and deservedly so. Reports are that he wants over $3 million, but I would say that $3 million right on the nose is a fair average salary for a contract for a player like him. Some believe that with the Flyers preparing to go after Stamkos or Richards they’ll pass on signing Leino to make room. Personally, I think that the Flyers are better off and more likely to trade Kris Versteeg and sign Leino for a net of about zero in salary to make something like that happen. If the Flyers do allow him to use the market, could the Wings take another shot at him? He could thrive on a team like Detroit with a new lease on his career.

The Hurricanes want to resign Jussi Jokinen, and it would be in their best interest to. He should get about $3-3.5 million a year, which is actually a bargain for a player with his potential. It looks like Nashville will not resign Steve Sullivan. He’s a good player (although with his numbers falling), often overlooked because he’s been playing for the Predators, but he could add some nice veteran presence, especially on a young team. I wonder if the Jets will take a look at him. Andrew Brunette is another veteran who could help a team, but he might have some better scoring pop left in him.

Tomorrow I’ll write about the defensemen and goalies available.

Stephen Bochanski

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