The Sports Headquarters

Its now only days away until the first Saturday in the College Football season kicks off and we’re set to begin what should be, as always, another terrific college football season. Last year saw Auburn come from the depths of nowhere to win the BCS National Championship game, led by the dominance of transfer QB Cam Newton. Now, that title may be vacated in 5 years, but why start the process of previewing next season by raining on someone’s parade? So we’ll ignore that for now. Anyways, over these last couple days, we’ll go through the final topic, predictions, hoping to get you better prepared for the first Saturday of the College Football season. Concluding with the 12th part of the 12-part preview, we’ll go conference by conference projecting the final standings and bowl teams for each league, splitting it up into two parts. You’ll also get BCS Bowl and Heisman picks at the end of Part 2. The following schedule is your guide as to what has already been done that you can check out by clicking the link. But in the meantime lets wrap up this 2011 CFB season preview…

And for anyone who missed my Post NSD Preseason Top 25, since that won’t be revived in much detail again, feel free to check out all 3 parts: part one (#’s 25-19), two (#16-9), and three (#8-1),

Part 1: Ten Teams on the Rise- April 20th

Part 2: Ten Teams due for a Fall- May 3rdPart 3: New Coaching Faces- May 16th

Part 4: 10 Names to Learn (Replacements)- May 28th

Part 5: 5 Best Non-BCS teams (not named Boise St. or TCU)- June 8th

Part 6: Coaches Needing a Big Season- June 20th

Part 7: Storylines to Follow- July 2ndPart 8: 5 Days to Circle on Your Calendar- July 14thPart 9: Ranking the Conferences- July 26th

Part 10: 10 Heisman Candidates- August 8th

Part 11: Ten Games to Define NCG Race- August 20th

Part 12: Season Predictions- August 28th/September 2nd

Predictions. Everyone has them, some better than others. What am I doing here? Well using the information I’ve spent all offseason reviewing in prior parts to try and handicap how this season will play out. I’ll hit on some, I’ll miss on some. One thing’s for sure though, I’m guaranteed to be called a moron by many. If there’s one thing that is never unanimously loved, it’s sports predictions. With that said, lets predict the #7-11 conferences from my Part 9 conference rankings, the Sun Belt, WAC, MAC, CUSA, and Big East as well as looking at the Independents….Complain away

Teams with * are projected bowl teams

Sun Belt Conference:

Projected Order of Finish: Conference records

1. Troy 8-0*

2. UL-Monroe 7-1*

3. Florida International 6-2*

4. Middle Tennessee St. 4-4

5. Western Kentucky 4-4

6.Florida Atlantic 3-5

7. Arkansas St. 2-6

8. Louisiana Lafayette 1-7

9. North Texas 1-7

Reasoning: Another year of poor OOC play, I have the Sun Belt down for 10-26 in non-conference games right now and the conference standings shouldn’t see a major change overall. Troy has the benefit of getting the bulk of their tough games at home with UL-Monroe and Middle Tennessee coming to town. Could they slip up? Certainly. But the 5-time defending champs get the benefit of the doubt as I don’t think they’ll lose at home to UL-Monroe which puts them down for probably one-loss tops this year in Sun Belt play the way the schedule sets up. UL-Monroe brings back the whole offense and 8 defensive starters from a team who went 4-4 in conference last year. With the turnover at Middle Tennessee St., I think FIU will be their main challenger for 2nd place. The difference being the easier road schedule. Middle Tennessee takes a drop off from last season and just misses a bowl game after not being able to grab a key OOC win against Tennessee, GT, or Purdue. Western Kentucky rises from a 2-win season last year, which tied them for last in the Sun Belt to take 5th. At the bottom you have Louisiana Lafayette and North Texas. Both teams lose a bit from their offenses last season and Lafayette’s win over North Texas gives them the tie-breaker.

Western Athletic Conference:

Projected Order of Finish: Conference Records

1. Nevada 7-0*

2. Fresno State 6-1*

3. Hawaii 5-2*

4. Louisiana Tech 4-3

5. Utah State 2-5 (own tiebreaker)

6. New Mexico St. 2-5

7. San Jose St. 1-6 (own tiebreaker)

8. Idaho 1-6

Reasoning: With the departure of Boise St. to the Mountain West this year and Hawaii, Nevada, and Fresno St. following suit next year, the Sun Belt will have major competition for worst conference in America next season. With that said, Nevada will look to repeat as conference champs in 2011 and despite the losses of Colin Kaepernick and Vai Taua should do just that with both Fresno and Hawaii having to come to Reno. The fact they have more turnover on the offensive side of the ball isn’t much concern to me as Chris Ault’s Pistol offense is more than capable of replacing the parts, especially considering the depth they have coming back at WR and OL. Tyler Lantrip should more than hold his own in his first year as Wolfpack starter. With the top 3 in a class of their own, the only real question going through for me was who finishes 2nd, Hawaii or Fresno St. Despite the Bulldogs having to travel to Hawaii, Pat Hill generally loads up OOC early in the year and has his team playing its best football late in the year. They have not lost a WAC conference game to someone other than Boise or Nevada after November 1st since 2007. Hawaii will be replacing nearly everything from its 2010 offense except for QB Bryant Moniz and coming off a game against Nevada that could seal Hawaii’s fate in the WAC title chase, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were a little lackadaisical in this one, allowing the Bulldogs to steal a road win. After Hawaii, you have Louisiana Tech team who just missed out on bowl season last year and I expect much of the same this season. With Hawaii being the only of the big 3 they get at home in WAC play, the likelihood of them stealing one of those games is very low. That would then require them to to win two non-conference games against Ole Miss, Miss St., Houston, Central Arkansas and Southern Miss. They should beat Central Arkansas, their one FCS win they’re allowed but after that I don’t see a win in any of their remaining 4 OOC games which would once again leave them one victory short of bowl eligibility. At the bottom of the conference you have 4 teams who would all be lucky to win more than 3 conference games and none of them have a favorable enough non-conference schedule to think they’ll be in bowl consideration come December.

MAC Conference

Projected Order of Finish: Conference Records

East:

1. Miami, OH 7-1*

2. Ohio 6-2*

3. Temple 5-3*

4. Kent State 4-4

5. Akron 2-6

6. Buffalo 1-7

7. Bowling Green 0-8

West:

1. Toledo 8-0*

2. Northern Illinois 7-1*

3. Western Michigan 5-3

4. Central Michigan 4-4

5. Ball State 2-6

6. Eastern Michigan 1-7

Conference Championship Game: Miami, OH over Toledo

Reasoning: Familiar faces should stand atop the MAC divisions in 2011 as the teams in contention last year all bring back a decent amount of starters from their 2010 teams. In the East division Miami, OH should again reign supreme as not only the top dog in its division but one of the top non-AQ teams in all of college football. Despite the loss of head coach Mike Haywood, the Redhawks provide new coach Don Treadwell with an experienced group hoping to defend their conference crown. Ohio and Temple should battle for 2nd in the East with both teams having to replace a number of starters from their 2010 defenses. Al Golden’s departure as well as the matchup being played at Ohio gives me comfort taking Ohio to finish ahead. Kent St., despite a decent conference mark and 6 projected wins, likely will be overlooked at bowl season as I don’t project any significant wins that would make them an appealing choice to a bowl selection committee. At the bottom of the East, Akron, Buffalo, and Bowling Green should battle it out among themselves for the cellar of the division. None of the teams give any reasons to think they’ll be a major change coming off 2010. Out West, the game between Toledo and Northern Illinois played at Toledo should decide the division winner. Neither team’s schedule suggests they would lose twice outside that matchup so worst case it should serve as a tie-breaker advantage to the winner. Western Michigan is a potential bowl team but for now I have a hard time envisioning the MAC getting 6 bids and they may end up as the Temple of this year, projected to go 7-5 and miss a bowl. Central Michigan should have a bounceback year and be more competitive in 2011 than the 3-9 football team of 2010 but likely won’t be back in a bowl game. Ball State and Eastern Michigan fill out the bottom. In the conference title game with homefield advantage taken out of the equation, I like the Redhawks to redeem their lone regular season MAC loss and win a second consecutive MAC title.

Conference USA

Projected Order of Finish: Conference Records

East:

1. Central Florida 7-1*

2. East Carolina 6-2*

3. Southern Miss 5-3*

4. UAB 3-5

5. Marshall 1-7

6. Memphis 0-8

West:

1. Tulsa 7-1 (own tiebreaker)*

2. SMU 7-1*

3. Houston 6-2*

4. Rice 3-5

5. Tulane 2-6

6. UTEP 1-7

Conference Championship Game: Tulsa defeats UCF

Reasoning: A very competitive non-BCS league that should once again send anywhere from 5-7 teams bowling, the C-USA will have many chance to prove themselves in non-conference play. Starting in the East, the defending conference champs UCF should once again be the favorites to win the division. Despite the overhaul on defense they will have an extremely talented backfield with 3 RBs capable of playing the lead role. If Jeff Godfrey is a more reliable passer, they could repeat as conference champs. East Carolina despite a tough first half of the schedule, should get enough wins in the back half to sneak into a bowl game. Despite having them at 6-6, I think they’ll beat Southern Miss in their late season matchup giving them the inside track to 2nd in the East. After Southern Miss, UAB is a darkhorse who could potentially sneak into a bowl berth but with projected losses at Troy, at Florida and vs. Mississippi St., they would need 6 wins in their other 9 games to qualify and with a CUSA schedule that features 5 of the 6 projected bowl teams from this league, that may be too tall a task. After Marshall, Memphis should again represent one of the worst teams in America. They bring back only 14 starters from last year’s team who struggled mightily. In the West you have a Tulsa team who I had on the back end of my post-NSD Top 25. An offensive juggernaut with plenty of talent at the skill positions, they’ll be battling SMU and Houston for the top spot. SMU won the division last year in large part to their H2H win over Tulsa and with SMU heading to Tulsa this year, I think the Golden Hurricane return the favor. Houston welcomes back Case Keenum for what seems like his 10th year after he was granted yet another season of eligibility after tearing up his knee early last year. The QB who should set the NCAA career passing mark this year is a large part in why I believe Houston will be back in the C-USA title game mix and a bowl team at year’s end. The biggest drop off in 2011 should be UTEP. Though some may say I’m being overly pessimistic about them, they have a ton of turnover from a team who barely snuck into a bowl in 2011 and I think this year that puts them as the weak link. I’m projecting Tulane at the moment to beat them at home. In the conference championship, after UCF gives Tulsa its only loss of the conference schedule, I think Tulsa returns the favor in the conference title game and wins a low-scoring game by their standards. C-USA should be a competitive conference in 2011 though.

Independents

Projected Records Overall:

Notre Dame- 9-3*

BYU- 10-2*

Navy- 7-5*

Army- 4-8

Reasoning: Notre Dame stands as the most important of the Independents group as they are realistically the one with the greatest chance to play themselves into the BCS . In Year 2 of Brian Kelly’s tenure at South Bend, the Irish return one of the highest “returning staters” ratios in the nation. Needing a top 8 spot in the final BCS to qualify, Notre Dame is naturally a team of interest this year. With that said, predicted at 9-3, Notre Dame I feel will likely end up outside the top 8 and not play themselves into a BCS bowl. I actually am more of a Tommy Rees supporter and felt he was the better QB last season when given a chance. Dayne Crist will have plenty to work with, especially now that Michael Floyd has been reinstated, but I feel that Tommy Rees was the best Irish QB last season. If they can beat Stanford on the road to end the season, a team I have them projected to lose to, then they should be a potential BCS team next season. Notre Dame should take a step forward in 2011 but I’m not ready to give them BCS credit. BYU will likely be one of the top non-AQ teams in the country this season. They have a very up and down schedule. Part of their schedule makes up some of the weakest teams in D-1 football with San Jose St, Utah St., Idaho, and New Mexico St. At the same time road trips to Mississippi, Texas and Oregon St should present stiff challenges as well as home games vs Utah and UCF. Despite my arguing with a BYU fan on this very blog not long ago that they would be a 9-3, 8-4 team, I’ve come around and like them enough against both Utah and UCF at home to project them at 10-2. As an independent, it will be hard for them to gain BCS status, but they should be a very strong team in 2011 that gives most teams on their schedule trouble. As a very upper-classmen filled team, 2011 is certainly their year to impress. Navy despite the drop-off in talent, especially defensively, should play themselves into bowl contention with a option-offense that is strong enough to win 6-7 games. I have them projected at 7-5 right now with wins over SMU and Troy which I think will be appealing enough for them to get a bowl bid. Nonetheless, if there’s a downfall for this team in 2011 it will be a defense that must replace 7 starters. As a ball-controlling offense, their success may rely on how successful they run the ball at key moments in their biggest games. Army should once again be the weak link in the chase for the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy and will likely have a subpar season in 2011. Army will likely end up with losses to both Navy and Air Force and challenged themselves mightily in 2011 with games on the road vs Northern Illionois, Miami, OH, Vanderbilt, and Temple. Army has a lot of turnover in 2011 and coming off a season where they barely qualified for a bowl game….I think 2011 leaves them bowless.

Big East

Projected Order of Finish: Conference Records

1. West Virginia 6-1 (owns tiebreaker)*

2. Pittsburgh 6-1*

3. South Florida 4-3 (owns tiebreaker)*

4. Cincinnati 4-3*

5. Uconn 3-4 (owns tiebreaker)*

6. Syracuse 3-4

7. Rutgers 1-6 (owns tiebreaker)

8. Louisville 1-6

Reasoning: The butt end of jokes in recent years, the “Little East” is once again hearing the critics heading into 2011. Naysayers argue their BCS status should be removed with the lack of a premier team but as a conference they fared fairly well in the postseason last year despite everyone only wanting to talk about the Fiesta Bowl. West Virginia starts a new era with head coach Dana Holgorsen and his up-tempo offense and has been tabbed by most as the favorites this season. That is the thinking here as well as their most challenging road game will be the season finale at South Florida. Otherwise, they get the bulk of their tough games at home. The games to watch for them might actually be their OOC slate as a road trip to Maryland and their return home game against highly ranked LSU could determine where this team factors into the BCS discussion entering Big East play. Despite the massive turnover on defense, the thinking is they should get healthy in BE play against a group of teams without elite defenses before their critical matchup with Pitt. Though he won’t start the there, Geno Smith could play himself into Heisman talks depending on how successful the Mountaineers are. For Pittsburgh, after an off season where they thought they were bringing in a new coach, only for that coach to get himself fired amid a legal investigation, they turn to Todd Graham to lead the charge. With 8 returning starters on each side of the ball, Pitt should be a major threat to West Virginia atop the Big East despite the loss of Dion Lewis and Jon Baldwin, their two biggest playmakers last year. With 7 starting seniors on defense and an offensive line with 4 seniors, the Panthers won’t be short on experience. Looking for a team to take a leap in 2011? How about the Cincinnati Bearcats. With the entire starting defense back, all juniors or seniors, and how talent at the skill positions offensively, Cincy should be able to get themselves back to a bowl game this year if they can get 3-4 league wins. They once again have a challenging OOC schedule with trips to Tennessee and Miami, OH on there, as well as NC St. at home. Their road slate in the Big East will be one of the most difficult as well with trips to Pitt, South Florida, and Syracuse included. Uconn, the defending conference champ would probably be an even bigger surprise than last year if they contended for the conference crown again. Jordan Todman was such a huge part of the offense last season that I just don’t get behind the thought of them continuing their success of a year ago without his services. Add in the loss of Randy Edsall to Maryland and the Huskies are a safe bet to take a step back this year. 4 of their projected 7 wins come against an extremely weak OOC schedule. Depending on how many bowl eligible teams there are, their small fanbase and unattractive resume makes them unappealing to many bowls. Rutgers and Louisville both appear to be the weak links of the Big East in 2011 and either going bowling would surprise me.

Part 2 will come up hopefully Friday with the Mountain West, PAC-12, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC.

Come talk College Football with me on twitter at @BDohertyTSHQ1

And come check our SOON TO BE WEBSITE twitter account at @TSHQsportsblog

Bryan Doherty

bdohert@g.clemson.edu