Season ATS: 16-12-1
Season Over/Unders: 1-3
Season Parlays: 1-3
Season Teasers: 0-5
Season Units: -21.5 units
Week 7 Recap: Well, the unpredictable pandemonium that is the NFL continued. The Packers squelched a 17 point lead to the Vikings down the stretch allowing Minnesota the backdoor cover at the hands of Ponder, while Joe Wacko pulled his now infamous Mr. Hyde act in no showing against the Jags. I didn’t see AP running for 165 yards, or Ponder looking that sharp in his first start, so props to the Vikes who have decimated my picks on consecutive weeks on both sides of the coin. The Ravens collapse was however foreseeable. With them you bet and hope adequate Wacko shows up. I’m still surprised the Ravens didn’t cover just by their defense despite Average Joe’s ineptitude. Luckily, the divine spirit that is Tim Tebow struck in the last two minutes of the Miami game and DeMarco Murray to the dismay of my fantasy team destroyed the Rams single handedly, lessening the blow. I’m still upbeat despite consecutive weeks of losing. I’ve been here before, and have found a way to scratch and claw my way out of the hole. It’s that time again. I actually like this weeks slate of games more than any other week this season. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing, but regardless it’s go time..
Cleveland at San Francisco(-9)
This is a great matchup for the Niners. The Browns have given up at least 100 yards rushing to every team they’ve played outside of Seattle last week who didn’t have Marshawn Lynch. San Fran is a meat and potatoes offense. They pound the ball if they’re tied, up by 20, or down by 20, and in the process simplify the game for Alex Smith. I expect there will be a heavy dose of Gore and Kendall Hunter toting the rock, and Cleveland will be helpless to stop it. On the opposite end of the ball, the Browns offense is feeble. They mustered just 6 points against the Hawks last week at home and now travel to play a defense that is #2 against the run and have 17 sacks. The Browns will have to rely on borderline mediocre Colt McCoy to win this game through the air. You know I’m fading that.
Bet: San Fran -9 (3 units)
If you can’t beat em join em, right? Also, this line seems like it should be higher but the books aren’t ready to make San Fran double digit favorites just based on principle. I think we’re getting at least a point of value here.
Minnesota (+3.5) at Carolina
Cam Covers and the Panthers are gaining appreciation from the public due to their 5-1-1 ATS mark. However, lost in translation is how bad they are defensively. Carolina’s D gives up over 130 yards per game on the ground, and due to the fact teams just run on them their #12 rank against the pass is misleading. Simply put this is a bad defense, and now they have to deal with Peterson this week who just lit up a stiff Packers rush D for 165 yards. AP could legit go for 200 on Sunday, especially with Ponder now under the helm. Ponder’s 13-32 stat line against the Packers obviously isn’t sexy, but for those who watched the game his impact was much greater than that. The Vikes offense seemed reinvigorated with Ponder, and moving forward this team is better than 1-6 with a live body now at quarterback. Overall, I expect the Vikes to run AP into the ground and control time of possession, keeping Cam away from field and the Vikes porous secondary.
Bet: Minnesota +3.5 (2 units)
Washington at Buffalo (-5.5)
This game is in Toronto, but I still don’t think it matters much. Washington just lost Santana Moss for 6 weeks and Tim Hightower for the season. They were already an anemic offense, and now their arsenal of already limited weapons has been reduced to Fred Davis. Buffalo is a top 5 offense, so if the Redskins are to cover they have to generate points. I don’t see it with a cast of a sub-par QB and limited options.
Bet: Buffalo -5.5 (2 units)
The line opened at 4 and quickly shot up to 6. I got in at 5.5, but I’d still feel comfortable laying 6.
Dallas (+3.5) at Philadelphia
The public love fest in regards to the Eagles persists. Fundamentally, this line says Philly is a half point better than Dallas on a neutral field. I disagree. This is a nice matchup for the Boys with the emergence of DeMarco Murray squaring up against the Eagles feeble run defense. Most importantly, outside of the Boys’ thumping of the Rams last week Dallas’ last 11 games were decided by 4 points or fewer. I like that to continue.
Bet: Dallas +4 (2 units)
I bought the half point in this case to follow the aforementioned trend.
Cincinnati at Seattle (+3 units)
The Hawks are 8-3 ATS at home over the past two seasons. This smells like a trap game, especially without Cedric Benson. Still, it’s the Seahawks, so I can’t put down more than a unit.
Bet: Seattle +3 (1 unit)
Six Team Seven Point Teaser: Houston -2.5/Tennessee -2.5/Baltimore -6/NO -7/SF -2/NYG -3
This week has blowout written all over it based on the matchups, so even though conditional plays haven’t been hitting I have to ride it. The Titans, Saints, and Giants all draw the “Suck for Luck” teams in Indy, St. Louis, and Miami respectively. The Titans aren’t as bad as they looked last week and this is a make or break game for Chris Johnson against an anemic Colts run D. Basically, the Titans are pissed and the Colts have thrown in the towel. I think that’s worth 2.5 points. The Rams have scored a whopping 56 points in 6 games. Even if the Saints are looking forward to Tampa Bay next week the game is still in a dome and the Rams offense (Sam Bradford or not) isn’t potent enough to stay within a touchdown. The Giants screwed me in this situation against the Seahawks three weeks ago, but given how difficult their schedule is over the latter half of the season they simply can’t afford not to accept Matt Moore giving them the game. Plus, Justin Tuck is back solidifying their run defense, so Matt Moore will have to put points on the board. Given that Marshall can’t catch I don’t like their chances.
Baltimore is a vexing team. As mentioned above Flacco is Jekyll and Hyde. Last week we unfortunately saw the latter. After getting embarrassed on Monday Night in Jacksonville the Ravens will be out for blood against the lowly Cardinals. Speaking of Jacksonville, I’m not overreacting to their win on Monday. Despite their defense appearing to play well I’m not sure if that was more a product of that actually being the case or the Ravens ineptitude offensively. This is still Blaine Gabbert on the road in a division game against an underrated defense. Again, I feel obligated to fade that laying only 2.5.
Bet: 2 units (+400)
As always, good luck all..