Season ATS: 22-16-1
Season Over/Unders: 1-3
Season Parlays: 1-3
Season Teasers: 1-7
Season Units: -22.5 units
Week 9 Recap: I’m starting to feel like I wronged Joe Flacco in another life. Every time I bet on him Hyde shows up and screws me. Conversely, every time I bet against him there’s good old Jekyll to send me on a drinking binge. To add insult to injury, last week was a double wammy. He not only swiped cash out of my wallet again but swept my team. Seriously, who had Flacco driving 92 yards on that drive? That was classic Flacco interception territory, and the guy was absolutely flawless. And you know why? Because Flacco hates me! SCREW YOU JOE! I’ll still take you driving 92 yards for the win every time come January. I just wont bet on it..
Notice the one teaser win included above. No, it wasn’t a documented win written in the column and no I didn’t include it in the unit total. It’s there for moral support in showing winning a teaser in the year the teaser died/put everyone out of business is still possible (for the record it was Houston -3.5, SF +.5, ATL -1). You don’t like it? Too bad. Onto week 10..
Pittsburgh (-4) at Cincinnati
Yea, I’m on the Steelers again. This is a must win game for them. If they lose they fall 3 games back of the Ravens (assuming they beat the Hawks) having already lost the tiebreaker and 2 games back of the Bengals. Pittsburgh’s hopes of not only winning the division but maybe even making the playoffs are on the line here. The Bengals have been great this year and have exceeded all expectations, but delving deeper they’ve had a cake schedule and faced feeble quarterbacks. Cinci has faced Cleveland (Colt McCoy), Denver (Kyle Orton), Jacksonville (Blaine Gabbert), Indy (Curtis Painter), Seattle (Tarvaris Jackson) and Tennessee (Matt Hasselbeck). Thus, I don’t put much stock in their statistical success, especially their pass defense. The one elite defense they played, San Francisco, held them to 8 points. Dick LeBeau is known for throwing the kitchen sink at rookie quarterbacks with a plethora of confusing blitzes. Dalton will be facing schemes and looks he has yet to see in his career. The Bengals may be legit, but they aren’t ready for this.
Bet: Steelers -3 (4 units)
As per usual, I bought a point to land on a key number.
Houston (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
I’m still not sold on Houston, but I love their matchup here. The Bucs have given up at least 175 rushing yards to three out of their last four opponents. On the flip side, the Arian Foster + Ben Tate + #1 run blocking offensive line in the league combination is as dominant as it gets on the ground. With the Bucs without Gerald McCoy, I expect the Texans to play ultra conservative and just pound the rock down Tampa’s throat. Tampa wont be able to stop Houston’s ground game, and when they inevitably get behind they don’t have the offensive firepower to play catchup. Plus, the Bucs are a notoriously poor home team ATS (4-7-1 over the past two seasons). Tampa has the desperation factor on their side, but I think the matchup advantage for Houston trumps that on Sunday.
Bet: Houston -3 (3 units)
Bought the half point for insurance
Three Team Seven Point Teaser: Buffalo +11.5, Philly -7, GB -6.5
Everyone is down on the Bills after being dismantled by the Jets, but even so this line makes no sense. The line opened Dallas -6, but quickly got bet down to -4.5. What has Dallas done to deserve being favored by more than the traditional 3 here? They continue to shoot themselves in the foot in the red zone (see last week when they had over 300 total yards in the first half against Seattle but had only 6 points due to their red zone ineptitude). They’ve been gauged on the ground of late and their secondary is weak. Most importantly, where are their quality wins? That SF miracle in week 2? They beat bad teams like they’re supposed to. Buffalo isn’t a bad team. The Bills are still an elite offense and the Cowboys D isn’t the Jets D. The Sharps are pounding Buffalo even at +4.5. I’d love to see Dallas win by more than 10 points here..
Oh, the vexing Eagles. I hate betting on Philly because you never know what team is going to show up. They could lose by 7 or win by 40. I have to roll with them here though. If they don’t win this game they might as well not even show up for their remaining games because they’ll be eliminated from the playoffs. Their desperation meter is off the charts. It doesn’t get any better than a Cards team coming to town with a banged up Beanie Wells and possibly Skelton at the helm (not that it makes a huge difference). Let’s go Dream Team. Man up for a game.
Who are the 5 greatest quarterbacks in the league today? Rodgers, Rodgers, Rodgers, Rodgers and Rodgers. You know why? Because he spits hot fire. Any questions?
Bet: 3 units
Good luck this week..