Season ATS: 24-16-1
Season Over/Unders: 1-3
Season Parlays: 1-3
Season Teasers: 1-8
Season Units: -18.5 units
Week 10 Recap: Another week, another 2-0 ATS score and corresponding teaser blunder. I’m probably the only gambler in America batting 60% ATS and losing money. Dammit. Nothing to reflect on outside of rehashing the above trend. DJ, spin that shit. Onto week 11.
Disclaimer: I’m piling on the favorites on Sunday. No seriously, I’m “squaring” the shit out of this week..
Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-14.5)
Dear Vegas, there isn’t a number you could set this line at where I wouldn’t bet GB. The Pack have entered 07 Pats territory where you’re betting them regardless of the spread (they’re 4-0 ATS at home FYI). Rodgers is fire. Seriously, I’ve never seen the position played better. The Bucs offense on the contrary is puke. Freeman has regressed significantly this year. Yea I know, awesome analysis. Personally I think it was 3 sentences too much.
Bet: GB -14 (4 units)
The Pack are going to blow Tampa’s doors off, but still, I’ll always buy half point to land on a key number.
Kansas City at New England (-15)
Tyler freakin Palko? Seriously? I realize there is a lot of system overlap here (Scott Pioli, Cassell, ect) but still, it’s Tyler freakin Palko on the road.. The Pats defensive front looked like gangbusters last week against the Jets. I would have bet this anyway, but their progression enhances my stance that this will be a blowout. As an aside, can ESPN stop fucking up the Monday night slate? Seriously, has there been one pseudo-competitive/watchable Monday night game all year? Say it with me, FLEX SCHEDULE!!!
Bet: NE -15 (4 units)
Dallas (-7.5) at Washington
Continuing this amazingly intricate analysis, the Redskins are terrible. Capiche?
Bet: Dallas -7 (3 units)
I’m buying the half point here in honor of David Nelson’s girlfriend. Cheers to being a below average wideout and landing a 10!
Buffalo (+1.5) at Miami
Despite the appearance of the wheels falling off the wagons of the Bills, I still know one thing: nobody circles the wagons (even wheelless) like the Buffalo Bills! Ok, that was kind of lame. Whatever. The Bills are still the better football team and they’re week 11′s most desperate team. Miami 1) isn’t good and 2) are a terrible home team. Give me the Bills (somewhat reluctantly).
Bet: Buffalo +1.5 (1 unit)
I’m going to wait this out until kickoff to see if the public pushes this line up. The Bills are the ex girl friend of the public. They’re extremely bitter that their early season darling has imploded. Nothing is better/more profitable then exploiting irrational revenge..
Oakland at Minnesota (pick)
The whole world (well everyone with NFL Network) saw Carson Palmer shred the hapless Chargers D last Thursday night. Similarly, everyone also saw the Packers rout the Vikes on Monday night. What’s my point? Everyone is overreacting to recent events. Lost in translation are two things: 1)the Raiders have the worst run defense in football and 2)Carson Palmer still isn’t good. If you’re betting Oakland here you’re ignoring the first fact and buying into Carson, especially with the Vikes putrid pass D. I’m not willing to accept the latter premise (Carson being good), so I’ll side with the matchup and AP here.
Bet: Minnesota pick (1 unit)
This is the week I vault back into respectability.. If this doesn’t cash, I wont know what to do with myself..
3 Team 6 Point Teaser: GB -8.5, NE -9, SF -4
As discussed above, GB and NE should roll. I would have thrown the Niners in as well but I’m terrified of a Skelton to Fitz backdoor cover TD late. I think they win by at least 7, so I feel confident laying 4.
Bet: 5 freaking units
Good luck doubling up and profiting this week all