National Championship Game: I said before this week that Oklahoma State’s only chance at the NCG was a blowout win over Oklahoma and Clemson beating Virginia Tech. Both of those happened, so I have to stick by my statement. Oklahoma State will be a consensus computer #2, so they will need to be withing 30 votes of Alabama in the Coaches’ Poll and 58 votes in the Harris. We will get a good indicator of if this will happen when the Coaches’ Poll debuts at around 12:30 Eastern on Sunday. But I think Oklahoma State made their statement and that fan and voter dislike of a rematch will move Oklahoma State into the game.
LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl: The Rose is the easiest bowl to predict. As long as no team is in the NCG, it’s the winner of the Big Ten against the Pac 12. That means it will be Oregon and Wisconsin this year.
Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Orange Bowl: The ACC champ is automatic, and Clemson earned their way in with their win in the ACC championship Game. The Orange Bowl has last pick of the at-larges, and since I don’t think that TCU will qualify that means that they are left with the Big East champion. The Big East rules for a 3-way tiebreaker in which each team is 1-1 against the others states that the highest-ranked BCS team will get the conference’s automatic bid. Barring any voter uprising to put Cincinnati in the game, that means that it will be West Virginia.
Clemson vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Since we are projecting Oklahoma State to jump into the NCG, that means that the Sugar Bowl will get the first replacement team. The Fiesta will then get two straight picks. The Sugar Bowl will take Alabama. The Fiesta will take Michigan as one of their two picks. The Wolverines are just too valuable to pass up. I think that Michigan will be safe even if Baylor jumps them, as they will move ahead of Oklahoma after the Sooners’ blowout loss. The only other real candidates for BCS at-larges will be Stanford (who is guaranteed an at-large) and Boise State. I think that TCU will only rise to #17 in the BCS because I think they will get jumped from behind by Clemson. I think the pull of Andrew Luck will be too much to pass up, not to mention that a Big Ten vs. Pac 12 high-profile bowl matchup is always juicy.
Michigan vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl: With Alabama not making it into the NCG, the Sugar will take #3 and SEC school Alabama as their first replacement pick. There really won’t be many options for their second pick. None of Kansas State, Virginia Tech, and Houston (and maybe Baylor if they crack the top 14) are particularly good draws and none will draw much interest against Alabama. I think that Boise State is really the only viable option that the Sugar has left. I’m sure that they would love a bigger draw, but there really isn’t one out there at the moment. Kansas state is the only real viable threat to Boise getting the bid at this point, but I think Boise is a more valuable draw (barely) at the moment.
Alabama vs. Boise State
Chik-Fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Florida
Champ Sports Bowl: Florida State vs. Notre Dame
Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Utah
Belk Bowl: North Carolina State vs. Louisville
Music City Bowl: Virginia vs. Vanderbilt
Independence Bowl: North Carolina vs. Air Force
Military Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Iowa State
Pinstripe Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Texas A&M
Liberty Bowl: Rutgers vs. Mississippi State
Beef O’ Brady’s Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. FIU
Capital One Bowl: Michigan State vs. South Carolina
Outback Bowl: Georgia vs. Nebrasksa
Gator Bowl: Ohio State vs. Auburn
Insight Bowl: Iowa vs. Baylor
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Penn State vs. Missouri
TicketCity Bowl: Purdue vs. Tulsa
Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl: Illinois vs. Toledo
Cotton Bowl Classic: Kansas State vs. Arkansas
Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Washington
Holiday Bowl: Texas vs. California
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas: Arizona State vs. TCU
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: UCLA vs. Northwestern
BBVA Compass Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky
Hawai’i Bowl: Marshall vs. Nevada
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston vs. BYU
New Orleans Bowl: SMU vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Northen Illinois vs. Arkansas State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio vs. Utah State
Poinsettia Bowl: Wyoming vs. Louisiana Tech
New Mexico Bowl: San Diego State vs. Temple
If Alabama ends up in the NCG, I think the Fiesta will be Oklahoma State against Stanford and the Sugar will be Boise State against Michigan, with the Rose and the Orange being the same.