Analysis of Celebrity Fantasy Football Draft 2012 Part 1 of 3

Posted by on July 20th, 2012


What happens when you put a group of experts and a group of non-experts together in a Fantasy Football League Draft?  Well….you get a complete range of great and not so great picks.  Thankfully, for your viewing pleasure I have perused the Celebrity Fantasy Football Draft that was conducted yesterday on Sirius/Xm Radio and will provide a bit of analysis.

Participants of this Celebrity Draft included such characters as Artie Lange, Maurice Jones-Drew, George Wendt, Pilar Lastra, Zakk Wylde and the Miz as well as Sirius/Xm famous show hosts.  This year they also included the “average” everyday Fantasy fan who was allowed to draft a team.  Lets do an analysis of the teams that were drafted in a standard 12 team Non-PPR league with a snake style draft.  The entire draft except for the last of the last round is here for you to look at.

http://widereceiver.rtsports.com/football/draft-board.php?LID=108676&UID=fantasyfootball&CONF=0

Drafting 1st was Maurice Jones-Drew who, of course, picked Maurice Jones-Drew.  This led to speculation that his impending holdout may be a short one.   His first 3 rounds went RB, WR, QB which assured him getting off to a decent start.  His QB selections were Big Ben and Blaine Gabbert which I feel is a bit weak.  Roethlisberger has sustained at least one nagging injury each of the past few years.  If he were to go down, I don’t have a ton of confidence in Blaine Gabbert who had a very difficult rookie season in Jacksonville.  However I understand that MJD has to be partial to his team.  His RB’s are himself, Reggie Bush, Donald Brown and Jonathan Dwyer.  My first reaction was not positive on this group but I can see the rationale….MJD, if he plays is the offense in Jacksonville so he is a lock.  Bush was a star last year but has had ineffective years and injury issues so he is not a lock.  Brown will get lots of work being behind Andrew Luck but can he hold off his backups.  Jonathan Dwyer will be a large part of the Steelers offense IF Isaac Redman can’t be healthy or effective.  At Wide Receiver he selected Wes Welker, Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Pierre Garcon and Randy Moss.  I can see definite value here.  Welker, even though he is franchised, will still catch at least 90 balls in 2012. V Jax will be the deep threat Josh Freeman has needed and will perform at least as well as he did in San Diego.  Dwayne Bowe will be a valuable part of the KC offense even though he isn’t signed to a long term deal.  Pierre Garcon is going to provide a deep threat for RG III this year but he has been plagued by lapses in concentration that lead to drops.  Randy Moss is supposed to be the long threat for Alex Smith but Alex Smith doesn’t have a strong arm.  I can’t see Moss having much value in 2012.  At TE, Jones-Drew selected Tony Gonzalez and Marcedes Lewis.  Gonzalez just seems to be keeping Father Time at bay but is this going to be the year he experiences a drop-off?  If Lewis catches 1 TD in 2012, he will already surpass his 2011 stats.  Look for him to get somewhere in between his 2010 and 2011 stats but definitely more valuable than last year.  At Kicker, MJD selected Josh Scobee who will provide lots a few field goals but not many extra points due to the anemic Jacksonville offense.  Lastly, Jones-Drew selected the Jacksonville Defense who is a decent pick.  They were ranked 6th overall in the NFL last year and should maintain that strength.

 Drafting Second was ex Playboy Playmate Pilar Lastra who snatched up Arian Foster in the first round.  She went RB, RB and WR in her first 3 rounds.  Her QB selections were Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman.  I believe both QB’s will thrive this year.  Atlanta faces a very easy schedule in 2012 and I predict he will surpass 4700 yards and 35 TD’s.  Freeman has a bunch of new toys to play with and will be a bona fide QB2.  Her RB’s are Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Jahvid Best and Michael Bush.  Foster is an absolute lock.  Charles is coming off an ACL injury but I can see him rushing for at least 800 yards and 8 TD’s.  Best, when healthy can be a force for the Lions so he is a shot in the dark.  Bush will take some of the work off Matt Forte in Chicago and will vulture the Goal Line carries due to Forte’s ineptitude down deep.  Her WR’s are Andre Johnson, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Denarius Moore, Greg Little and Laurent Robinson.  If Andre and Miles didn’t have hamstrings, they’d be on the field every week.  When they are healthy, they can both dominate games.  Jackson is one of my least favorite players in the NFL.  You can’t deny the talent but when you act like a baby, you should be treated as one.  Moore and Little are up and coming stars but can’t be counted on every week due to QB play.  The same can be said for Laurent Robinson but I had to add the comment that he will experience one of the largest drop-offs in statistics from 2011 to 2012.  Lastra chose Antonio Gates and Jared Cook in the TE position.  If Gates shows up heavy like he did last year, he will be ineffective.  He also fights with Plantars Fasciitis which is a painful foot condition.  She made Jared Cook the backup and this was a great pick.  He came into his own in the last 3 games of 2011 with 21 grabs for 325 yards.  At Kicker, Pilar chose someone in the last round that wasn’t published as of the writing of this article.  For a Defense, she chose the Bears.  Great pick.  They will continue to swarm the QB and will rack up lots of Fantasy Points.  They will be a Top 3 Defense in 2012.

Picking 3rd was a team made up of random Sirius/Xm Subscribers.  The gentleman above made the first selection for his team which was Ray Rice.  The subscribers chose RB, RB and WR in the first 3 rounds.  They chose Tony Romo and Andrew Luck at the QB position.  Both should amass a ton of yards but can Romo cut down on the questionable decisions that have cost his team games in the past.  Luck is unproven, but the Colts will trail in most games this year so one can only assume that they will let him unleash the aerial attack.  The subscribers chose Ray Rice, DeMarco Murray and Ronnie Hillman as their RB’s.  Rice can be counted on to carry that offense this year.  He is one of the safest picks in Fantasy Football.  DeMarco Murray is coming off a broken ankle in 2011 that prematurely ended his fantastic season.  He will be the bell cow back in Dallas if he is healthy.  Ronnie Hillman has definitely intrigued me.  He has all the tools of a star RB but first he must leapfrog Willis McGahee.  The subscribers chose Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, Justin Blackmon, A.J Jenkins and Brian Quick at WR.  This is where I believe they made a fundamental mistake.  They chose Greg Jennings and Marques Colston and then they chose a Kicker and a Defense before choosing another WR.  I agree that Jennings and Colston are intelligent decisions but to wait until the 10th round before settling for Justin Blackmon was a mistake.  Blackmon is going to be a small part of a poor passing offense, A.J Jenkins will NOT be a factor in the 49ers passing game as he will be buried behind Crabtree, Moss and Manningham.  Brian Quick is expected to immediately step into the fold in St. Louis to help Sam Bradford but can he be a Fantasy star???  At TE, the subscribers chose Vernon Davis which was a strong selection.  Davis will be the primary pass catcher in San Francisco.  The subscribers took Sebastian Janikowski in the 7th round and the next kicker to come off the board was David Akers in Round 14.  Not smart!!! For a Defense they selected the Ravens.  The Ravens are due for a decline and this is the year.

NORRRRRMMMMMMM!!!  George Wendt had the 4th pick in the Celebrity Fantasy Draft and with it he chose LeSean McCoy. He went RB, QB, WR which covered almost the entire spectrum in the first 3 rounds.  At QB Wendt chose Matthew Stafford and Jake Locker.  Stafford has all the promise in the world and is blessed by having the best WR in the game at his disposal.  Locker should be the starter sometime this year displacing Matt Hasselbeck, so there is some intrigue here.  At RB, George took LeSean McCoy, Fred Jackson, C.J Spiller, DeAngelo Williams, David Wilson and Ryan Williams.  Holy crap Norm… Shady McCoy will be an start every game for you.  Who do you select for the other spot and maybe a Flex?  Fred Jackson is coming off a season ending injury last year but was absolutely “LIGHTS OUT” before it.  It is smart to handcuff Jackson and C.J Spiller who will most likely be a breakout candidate in 2012.  DeAngelo Williams will be part of the most convoluted backfield in the NFL.  David Wilson will, at least temporarily, play second fiddle to Ahmad Bradshaw in New York.  Ryan Williams missed all of the 2011 season with a serious knee injury and will most likely have a timeshare with Beanie Wells.  Since the NFL is morphing into a passing league I would have tried to go deeper with my WR’s instead.  At WR Wendt selected A.J Green, Steve Smith, Eric Decker, Kenny Britt and Michael Crabtree.  Adequate but not overly impressive, this group of receivers will be produce weeks of brilliance with weeks of unproductiveness sprinkled in.  A.J Green should be in your lineup every week.  Steve Smith will experience a fall-off in 2012.  Eric Decker should be a mediocre WR for Peyton Manning, Kenny Britt will probably be suspended for a substantial amount of time after being arrested for DUI again.  He has all the talent but he is lacking a brain.  Michael Crabtree is an extreme underachiever who showed glimpses of his talent last year but is part of a crowded receiving corps.  At TE George chose Jermaine Gresham who will bust out in a big way this year.  At Kicker he chose someone in the 16th round that was not published.  For his Defense, he chose the Eagles who will definitely have a better 2012.  They struggled adjusting to Juan Castillo’s scheme but they will flourish this year.

Thanks to Sirius/XM Radio for the Pics and to RealTime Fantasy Sports for the Teams.

I’ll analyse 4 more teams in my next installment.

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