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Its now only 15 days until the first Saturday in the College Football season kicks off and we’re heading down the home stretch to what should be, as always, another terrific college football season. Last year saw Auburn come from the depths of nowhere to win the BCS National Championship game, led by the dominance of transfer QB Cam Newton. Now, that title may be vacated in 5 years, but why start the process of previewing next season by raining on someone’s parade? So we’ll ignore that for now. Anyways, over the course of the last 2 weeks, we’ll go through the final topics, hoping to get you better prepared for September 3rd, the first Saturday of the College Football season. Continuing with the 11th part of the 12-part preview, we look at perhaps the ten most important games this season that will determine who plays for the BCS title on January 9th, 2012. The following schedule is your guide as to what is to come and what has already been done that you can check out by clicking the link, with dates being a rough estimate given my tendency for procrastination. But here’s what you have to look forward to:

And for anyone who missed my Post NSD Preseason Top 25, since that won’t be revived in much detail again, feel free to check out all 3 parts: part one (#’s 25-19), two (#16-9), and three (#8-1),

Part 1: Ten Teams on the Rise- April 20th

Part 2: Ten Teams due for a Fall- May 3rdPart 3: New Coaching Faces- May 16th

Part 4: 10 Names to Learn (Replacements)- May 28th

Part 5: 5 Best Non-BCS teams (not named Boise St. or TCU)- June 8th

Part 6: Coaches Needing a Big Season- June 20th

Part 7: Storylines to Follow- July 2ndPart 8: 5 Days to Circle on Your Calendar- July 14thPart 9: Ranking the Conferences- July 26th

Part 10: 10 Heisman Candidates- August 8th

Part 11: Ten Games to Define NCG Race- August 20th

Part 12: Season Predictions- September 1st/September 2nd

When January 9th rolls around and two teams line up to play for the BCS national title, we’ll be able to look back like any other year and pinpoint specific games throughout the season that allowed us to reach that point. That may be upsets that happened during the season, comebacks to avoid that first loss, a major late season win that leapfrogged one team over another, etc. In the 11th part of the preview, we’ll project 10 games that will have the biggest impact on the national championship race in determining which two teams make it to Louisiana on Jan 9th. Last year, Ohio St. falling on the road to Wisconsin or Auburn rallying to win the Iron Bowl are two classic examples of games that shaped the title chase. Is it a perfect science preseason? No. It’s entirely possible all 10 games on this list could mean everything to the title chase. It’s entirely possible at year’s end 6 of these games didn’t even matter possibly. I’ll be attempting to pick games that should definitely have national title implications AT THE TIME THEY’RE PLAYED. But we’ll deal with the schedules as they stand, and put on our best guessing hats….

Writer’s Note: The order of these games is neither chronological or by importance. It’s merely ten games listed in no particular order.

Also, in order for a game to have national title implications, it probably should have one national title contender involved right? So forgive me if some teams become repetitive, but fact is there’s only about 11-12 teams tops who can likely be involved in these games.

5 Games that just missed the cut: Texas A&M at Oklahoma, TCU at Boise, Florida State at Florida, Alabama at Mississippi St., Arkansas at LSU

The Ten Games That Could Define The BCS Title Chase:

Miami, FL at Virginia Tech, October 8th- What the F***? Relax, relax. Bare with me. I know what you’re thinking. How the hell did this game get on the list over some others? And simply put, Virginia Tech is the weakest national title contender maybe in the last 20 years. My colleague K.M will think I’m doing shrooms having VT on this list, but VT has set up their schedule in a way that would make the University of Florida proud. 4 OOC games that though you can never put an upset loss past the Hokies, they should be able to handle sending them into ACC play unbeaten. In conference it is even more appalling. The Hokies toughest ACC games are all at home and in cross-division play they miss Florida State, NC St., and Maryland, perhaps the 3 best teams in the Atlantic depending on where you look. Their ACC road games include: Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia. The Yellow Jackets might be the one team who could take them down of the four, but it’s hard to bet on that right now. So the Hurricanes come to town in early October for Virginia Tech’s 6th game of the season. The Hurricanes are far from The U of old, but despite the roller coaster competition at QB, they clearly present the biggest challenge to VT in the Coastal Division. Could the Canes do their rivals in once again? We’ve seen this story before. Virginia Tech has a potential NC season in the making (moreso back in the Big East days for these two) and Miami ends their chances. 2001 and 2005 ring a bell? Fans of national title contenders should get their Canes gear on this day if VT is still unbeaten because after this matchup, there’s a good chance their next chance for a loss might not be until the ACCCG.

Oklahoma St. at Texas A&M- September 24th- Two teams that most would probably consider tier-2 caliber national title contenders, it is a long road for either team to navigate in 2011 to go unbeaten. Yet, despite the challengers they face prior, both teams should enter this game unbeaten, Oklahoma St. at 3-0 and Texas A&M at 2-0. The winner will be in the driver’s seat to challenge Oklahoma for the Big 12 title and keeps themselves in national championship contention for at least another week. A&M has Arkansas the week after this one and should they get through those two matchups, would likely be 7-0 heading into a home matchup with Mizzou followed the next week with a game at Oklahoma. Last year this game turned into a barn-burner that wasn’t decided till the final seconds. Oklahoma St. on the flip side would leave this game likely 4-0 if they won and would have back to back road games in October against Texas and Missouri that would probably be their last realistic potential losses before the season finale where they host the Sooners. Is either team capable of rattling off win after win through those schedules to put themselves in position to play for the title? That’s probably not highly likely, but make no mistake, the winner of this game for the time being becomes an outside contender for the NCG and will just have to “win and watch” like others to see if those in front of them trip up.

Nebraska at Wisconsin, October 1st- The favorites to meet in the Big Ten championship game will meet even earlier than that in the conference opener for each team. Neither team should drop a game prior meaning a 4-0 Nebraska team should come to Wisconsin to meet a 4-0 Badgers team that may pit two top ten teams against one another at that point in time. Bo Pelini’s defense will get their first taste of the ground game of the Badgers who return James White and Montee Ball and now have added the services of Russell Wilson. On the flip side Taylor Martinez will give the Badgers plenty to worry about for the time he is on the field. Despite the 10th best defense in CFB in 2010, the Cornhuskers only ranked 61st against the run and were shredded by Chris Polk in the Holiday Bowl. Nebraska would have the tougher of the two schedules moving forward from this game with Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn St., Iowa, Northwestern and Michigan all left on the schedule. In their first year, could they run through the Big Ten slate unscathed? For Wisconsin, back to back road games at Michigan State and Ohio State might be the only thing keeping them from an unbeaten regular season should they survive this battle. And as was mentioned, this may be the first of two matchups if each team wins their division so its entirely possible either team could have to beat the other twice to finish the season unbeaten if they handle business in their other games. Either team wouldn’t be able to jump an unbeaten Big 12, PAC-12, or SEC champ however (or perhaps even an unbeaten FSU) so an undefeated Big Ten champ would likely to have to be one of two unbeatens to play for the title.

Oregon at Stanford, November 12th- A game Andrew Luck vowed on Twitter to me was the #1 game on his mind, the PAC-12 champion likely comes from the winner of this game as that should be enough to put the winner in the conference title game. Once there, it is a long shot that any team who comes from the South could beat either of these two. Last season Stanford raced out to a big lead only to watch Oregon come back and dominate the second half on their way to a big win. This year it is back in Stanford’s back yard and the Cardinal have a great chance to be 9-0 coming into this matchup as a weak OOC schedule, arguably the 3 worst PAC-12 south teams, and Washington at home (perhaps the 3rd best team in the north) are what is in front of them before a trip to USC. Many think the Trojans could potentially play upset kings this year and they gave Stanford all they could handle in 2010 before a last second FG pushed Stanford by. With that said, Stanford would be favored in that and the Oregon St. game the following week and I’m not betting on either to slow down Stanford. For Oregon it really comes down to the opener vs LSU which we’ll touch on shortly. Escape there and they’re sitting pretty to be 9-0 and perhaps the #1 team in the land depending on how Alabama and Oklahoma are doing. Oregon has USC and Oregon St. at home to end the season while Stanford has Cal and Notre Dame at home. Could USC or Notre Dame go on the road and beat either? Perhaps. But I think any Cardinal or Ducks fan would like their chances to close out the year with two home wins after this matchup. At this point in the season, a loss would likely remove either from national championship talks for good. So there will be a lot riding on this one for both teams, probably even more than just PAC-12 division title stakes.

LSU at Alabama, November 5th- Much like Oregon-Stanford this conference game and more importantly inner-division battle will not only have a major impact on the SEC West, but likely the NCG race. With the matchup coming so late in the season, should the winner of this game win the division, it is hard to think the loser could recover in time to still play for the national title, though as we’ve learned in the past that isn’t an impossibility in the BCS format. These two defensive juggernauts likely will decide the game on which QB limits their mistakes. Despite Jordan Jefferson having much more experience at the QB position than A.J McCarron, Jefferson has been sporadic throughout his tenure as starting QB and will be attacked ruthlessly by a Crimson Tide defense that will be a force in 2011. Remember it was Jarrett Lee who made the key 3rd down conversion that ended the game in 2010 between these two. Each team will have a series of challenges before we even reach this point that will determine how serious of a title threat they are. LSU will open the season with the Ducks, a top 5 matchup that could end one team’s chances before they even begin, while hosting Florida and Auburn and traveling in back to back games to Mississippi St. and West Virginia. Alabama has road games at Penn State and Florida while hosting Arkansas, a SEC West contender many may bury too soon with the injury to Kniles Davis. With the power of the SEC West again this year and the SEC’s run of dominance in BCS title games, it’s not hard to envision this being a BCS title game play-in if the winner goes on to win the SEC, and either winner going unbeaten would guarantee them a title game spot.

Boise St. vs. Georgia (at Atlanta), September 3rd- Despite the “neutral field” wrinkle this game supposedly has, there’s no question the crowd will be pro-Bulldogs in a primetime opener on college football’s first weekend. Some would debate the legitimacy of Boise St. as a national title contender saying that until proven otherwise a Non-AQ team can’t be considered. Yet, the Broncos once again enter the upcoming season with a top 10 ranking in the coaches poll (#7) and with at least 3 teams guaranteed to lose in front of them an unbeaten regular season could put them right back in the BCS hunt come December. Over the years many (including myself) have said the WAC competition wasn’t enough to validate a championship game spot. Yet with the upgrade to the MWC which should boast 3 other top 25-35 teams in the country, an unbeaten season might be hard to ignore if they can knock off an SEC opponent, one of the top teams in both the WAC and MAC, and then run through the MWC. But Boise St. doesn’t have the luxury of one loss that other top 10 preseason teams might have and many feel this game stands the tallest on the schedule. Everyone knows about the Broncos last trip to Georgia to play the Bulldogs (in Athens that time however) and payback will certainly be on their mind. The entire storyline of Boise St. and its place in the national title race that we’re all accustomed to yearly now could be over in one night if they trip up here. Win and they give themselves a puncher’s chance if others stumble.

South Carolina at Mississippi St., October 15th- Is South Carolina a national title contender? Depends on who you ask. Fans of fellow SEC teams and my fellow Clemson Tiger fans would say no. Others feel the talent at the skill positions puts them in the running. Looking at the Gamecocks schedule, if they can get by Georgia in their 2nd game played in Athens, they’ll have a very good chance to be 6-0 entering Starksville. The Bulldogs appear to be the rising program in the SEC’s West division and gave teams hell last year, including national champion Auburn who they played very close at home. Due to the fact LSU and Alabama aren’t on the Gamecocks schedule this season, a win here puts them in prime position to potentially run the table. They’ll have two road games at Tennessee and Arkansas following that also could be downfalls before finishing with 3 games at home. Given their respectable #12 ranking to start the year, South Carolina could play themselves up to around the top 5 most likely by getting through this game unbeaten and put themselves right smack in the middle of the title chase. With all that said, even without any bias involved, I’m not sold the Gamecocks are good enough to run through their schedule unbeaten into the SEC title game.

Oklahoma at Florida State, September 17th- Arguably the best non-conference game we’ll be treated to in 2011, there is a ton of praise being heaped on the shoulders of the Seminoles and any chance they have of living up to them will be put on display in this one. The ACC will once again lack a truly great team (unless it is FSU) and this game is the key to their national championship hopes. The Seminoles were blown out at Oklahoma last year and unless Tulsa walks into Norman and pulls off a major upset, then these two heavyweights will meet on September 17th in likely a matchup of Top 4 teams. Despite the notoriety of Oklahoma at #1 and the unquestioned importance of this game to them, I’m also highly intrigued by this game from Florida State’s perspective. The Sooners will have their hands full in the Big 12 between A&M, the Red River Rivalry, Bedlam, and Mizzou. On the other hand the Seminoles don’t have it so tough. The ACC Atlantic has 4 teams jumbled above Wake Forest with no clear distinction of who will challenge Florida State the most for division supremacy. Despite their struggles in Clemson in recent years, if the Seminoles make it through Oklahoma, I would be very comfortable wagering them running the table up to the ACC Championship Game. They do not draw Virginia Tech in cross-division games this year and barring a quick turnaround by Al Golden, the Hurricanes don’t appear to be the force they’ve been in the past capable of stopping FSU. So a win here makes Florida State a very dangerous sleeper to watch in the national championship race. Many expected big things from Jimbo Fisher at FSU but putting themselves in the national title chase in only his 2nd year? This game in mid-September will give us an idea of just how realistic that is.

Oregon vs. LSU (at Dallas), September 3rd- The most talked about game of the entire offseason sets the entire championship race in motion week 1 with the defending Pac-10 champs against LSU live from the spectacle that is “Jerry’s World.” The #3 and 4 teams in the country will each have an opportunity to gain a major non-conference win on their resume when the BCS comes into play later in the year. Oregon could become a force in the computer polls later in the year with a win over LSU. The PAC-10 generally has strong computer numbers and LSU will likely once again be among the higher rated computer teams. Oregon will be the favorite to win the newly formed PAC-12 and many feel LSU could be the only thing that stops them from another unbeaten season. The question will be can the Ducks offense produce against the speed of an SEC defense that as we saw last season gave them fits in the BCS CG and Auburn wasn’t even a great defense last year. For LSU this is the start of a long grind that will leave them tested almost weekly. As mentioned before, beyond this game they have to deal with the SEC West as well, not to mention West Virginia on the road. The one advantage to this game happening so early in the season is an opening loss isn’t as daunting for either team to overcome. Unless one team is blown out then the loser likely won’t fall further than low Top 10 or just outside it. With 13 weeks of games after that, either team could certainly play themselves back into the title chase by running the table the rest of the way. Of the two, LSU definitely is the one who could more reasonably overcome the loss given they’ll play probably 3-4 more top 25 teams over the course of the season.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma St, December 3rd- With the departure of Nebraska and Colorado from the Big 12, this league now will adopt the round-robin, 9 game conference schedule that means there will not be a conference championship game at season’s end. What does that mean for this potential meeting? Despite the talent of Missouri and Texas, if Texas A&M doesn’t beat either of these teams then you could have two teams with unbeaten conference records facing off for the Big 12 title in the last week of the season. Depending on how their OOC games go, one team could still be unbeaten. For Oklahoma it is really simple: If they are unbeaten entering Stillwater, then a win puts them in the national championship game, no questions about it. For Oklahoma St., if they beat the Sooners to go unbeaten, they they too would likely play for the title if there isn’t an unbeaten SEC team and probably PAC-12 team in front of them. More realistic? Oklahoma. Many have projected them to play for the title and after Florida State, this is the one game I could see them falling in. Getting A&M at home is a big break for the Sooners. Nonetheless, the most appealing aspect of this game is it is the latest in the year we can definitively call a matchup a potential NCG changer. Without knowing what the SEC, PAC-12, ACC, or Big Ten title games will be, we’d only be guessing in those instances. Bedlam could have a lot riding on it this year.

Which games missed the list? Who’s not a serious national title contender? Let me hear about it.

Come talk College Football with me on twitter at @BDohertyTSHQ1

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Bryan Doherty

bdohert@g.clemson.edu