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Bracketology (March 10^th 2012 -11am Update)

by Gus Elvin

It’s Championship Week and like I promised I am going to be delivering Bracketology updates all week long, and “a bubble watch” breakdown nightly.  As we begin many of the conference tournaments we have a pretty good idea of most of the at larges teams, as I figure there are about 30 teams competing for about 15 remaining at large spots. While seeds, bubble teams and mid-major conference auto bid winners will without question change as we approach Selection Sunday, I will keep you updated on everything regarding the bracket, including who’s in, who’s out and seeding. If you followed the site last year you will remember the general concept of Bracketology as I will list you the 68 teams in my field and tell you the teams who are still in play but just outside the field at the time of publication. Like last year I am not going to match the teams up because this is a waste of time and there is almost zero chance I or anyone else will get the matchups correct.

Secondly, like last year the team that is currently in 1^st or 2^nd in their conference will be selected at my digression as the conference’s automatic berth when dealing with mid-majors until the conference tournament final is completed. Although I’d like to just project the conference winners, this will ensure that my picks are more objective and not just affected by biases or my personal opinions. While in my previous installments I have added a small writeup to accompany each team, because it is Championship Week and I want to keep this up to date, we will abandon that system for the duration of the season. Finally the seeds are not ranked 1-4, with the exception of the #1 seeds and the “Last 4 and First 4 Out Categories” which will be ranked 1-4 in order to designate the top overall seed and the last teams in and last teams out. As a disclaimer remember that over the next week a lot will change and seeding and bubble teams will change on a nightly basis.  I will be constantly updating this post, specifically the last 4, first 4 out element, so stay tuned and check back in for updates. Finally these projections are reflected on Monday March 5^th, so a major loss or win after this date will not impact or be reflected in this version of Bracketology. Lastly, since some conference tournaments have been completed all teams that are in bold have already clinched an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament while an asterisk denotes my projected conference winner.That’s about it from me I officially declare class in session.

*Denotes Current Conference leader

Bold Denotes Conference Champion-Automatic Bid

It’s the beginning of the postseason and a final opportunity to bring our records to saving grace before we head into the NCAA tournament. Simply put, K.M and I have work to do. The Guru struggled down the stretch for a bit but perhaps was trying to keep K.M and I in the ballpark as a giant FU 5-1 ATS final week of the season pushes his lead out even further as we hit the Championship Week…otherwise known as one of the greatest weeks of the sports year. Now that we’ve gotten to this point is where we abandon our normal format and go back to the traditional format we used last year for the NCAAs and Championship Week. The only changes to this year’s format are 1) We will play every single tournament final, and 2) We are limited to 25 games outside of the finals games. Once we reach the NCAAs, all 67 games are fair game. But with 100s of games this week, we figured it was best to keep an honest limit to where we stand. Heading into Conference Championship week, here is where we stand:

Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6

Gus “The Guru” Elvin: 23-13 SU, 20-15-1 ATS
K.M: 20-16 SU, 13-22-1 ATS
Bryan: 18-18 SU, 15-20-1 ATS
Bet The Houses: 5-9
Roll The Dices: 2-3-1
K.M Crapshoots: 3-8
Bryan Crapshoots: 0-3

For the rest of the format, we’re dropping the special categories and rolling simply with our individual marks. Pretty much you were best off not listening to K.M or I. Nonetheless, here’s the first games of championship week starting with the Conference title games tomorrow:

Atlantic Sun Final: Florida Gulf Coast vs. Belmont (-17.5)

Guru: With Belmont’s top challengers(Mercer and USC-Upstate) gone you have to like the Bruins big as their backcourt of Kerron Johnson, Ian Clark, Drew Hanlen and J.J. Mann will cause all sort of problems for the sub .500 Eagles. Belmont will be a player in the NCAA Tournament as this team’s offensive efficiency and balance prepare it well as we enter postseason play. In the 2 prior meetings between these teams the Bruins won by 40 and 23 respectively,  in other words Belmont big by 20+. The only question in this one is will the Bruins win by more than the 41 points they beat North Florida by last season in the Atlantic Sun Final?

Belmont 83-FGC 58

K.M: Belmont is playing a school I refuse to believe exists. So I will take them.

Prediction Belmont 90 Fake School 0

Bryan: Florida Gulf Coast was 6th in the regular season. Belmont was 1st. THAT IS ALL I KNOW. I’m not lying. I don’t know a damn thing otherwise. Belmont rolls.

Prediction: Belmont 75 FGC 60

Update: Belmont wins 83-69, K.M: 2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS, Bryan: 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS, Guru: 3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS

Conference Tournament Previews and Projections

By Gus Elvin

With the regular season winding down it is time for that magical time of year we know as Championship Week as almost every team in the nation has a clean slate and an opportunity to live their dream and qualify for the NCAA Tournament.  In a week unlike any other the smaller conferences get their one chance at qualifying for the Big Dance, while teams from the power 6 conferences jockey for position and bubble teams try and stake their claim for an at large bid.  Championship Week technically doesn’t start until Monday but with conference tournaments like the Big South, Horizon and Atlantic Sun under way it is time to start breaking down these tournaments and projecting winners. For this segment I will do a write up for each conference tournament and then give you my pick to win the tournament final. Since there are 31 different leagues that receive autobids and I want to keep this timely and up to date, I will order this by earliest tournament final date, starting with the Ivy League regular season champion and  Saturday’s 3 tournament finals, the Atlantic Sun, Big South and Ohio Valley Conference. I will keep adding to this post as the week goes on and more conference tournaments tipoff which hopefully will give you some insight into the leagues you may not be as familiar with.  We also will keep track of my projections and at the end see how many of these conference tourneys I was accurately able to project. At first this will start slow as there are just 3 bids up for grabs this Saturday and one on Sunday but as we get into next week there will 3 or 4 bids up for grabs a night. As a random note the Ivy League who’s bid goes to the regular season champion could also be determined this weekend depending on results so I will also project that league now just to be safe. After a long season, College Basketball is about to enter its’ most exciting phase as over the next month buzzer beaters, upsets, excitement, despair and much more all come together in an event that we know best as “March Madness”. There is no better time in sports as for the next month college basketball will take center stage in an event filed with drama, intrigue and the unexpected. Without further rambling from me it’s time to kickoff my NCAAB Conference Tournament Previews and Projections starting with the Ivy League. Let the Madness Commence.

March 4th Update

by Gus Elvin

Weekend Update

-Seton Hall slides from 11 seed to Last 4 in after losing 85-58 to Big East bottom dweller DePaul

-Texas drops out with loss to Kansas but moves back in after Arizona loses to ASU

-Xavier slides back in heading to A-10 tourney with work to do after avoiding a bad loss against Charlotte

-Northwestern bounce back and stay in field after winning at Iowa 70-66

-USF despite 12 conference wins is still out for me as Louisville only real good win, decent wins vs bubble teams Cincy and Seton Hall

-Oregon smashes Utah and is the bubble team playing the best basketball right now…first team out right now but next team to move in with a last 4 in team loss

-Arizona crushing loss to ASU probably means at least 2 more wins needed for Wildcats to feel good about their chances.

-Miami still ahead of NC State despite getting swept by them because of wins vs Duke and Fla State + only 1 100+ loss.

-NC State gets needed win vs Virginia Tech but still have no top 50 wins and have bad losses to stanford, clemson and georgia tech

-Saint Joseph’s, heartbreaking OT loss to St. Bonaventure really hurts Joe Lunardis boys ….need to do a lot of work in a-10 tourney. Here because of wins vs Temple, Creighton and Drexel

-VCU-Great record(26-6) but low RPI(64) and best win against South Florida? I say no at large as the Rams need to win the CAA title game on Monday if they want to return to the dance.

-Iona joins bubble watch after MAAC semi-final loss to Fairfield. I don’t know how you can put this team in based on their resume. Gaels are just taking up space here.

-Middle Tennessee State-SEE IONA. Loss to Arkansas State ends MTSU’s Tournament dreams. Great year by the Blue Raiders with wins against Akron, Belmont and UCLA but who are we kidding the Sun Belt was always going to be a 1 bid league.

Tennessee- Out of left field trots Cuonzo Martin and the Volunteers. Tennessee is somehow in the conversation with 13 losses, 4 sub 100 losses, and an RPI of 75. Tennessee’s saving grace right now is their SOS (7) and wins against  Florida(twice) and Vanderbilt. Still need to do some work but Tennessee is peaking at the right time.

-Dayton/Ole Miss- Both of these teams got stay alive wins over the weekend but both need to do a lot of work in their conference tourneys to “really” be in consideration for an at large.  Ole Miss best win Alabama? Going to need to do a lot of work in SEC  and wins against Auburn and then Tennessee in SEC tourney 1st 2 rounds are not the kind of wins that Ole Miss needs right now.

*Tomorrow Night I will post my entire Bracketology with updated seeds and the addition of conference auto bid winners Asheville, Murray State, Belmont and Creighton.

Bracketology # 2 : February 28^th 2011

By Gus Elvin

Well as we approach Championship Week and the season winds down it’s time to take another look at the prospective NCAA field in my updated edition of Bracketology. At this point in the season we have a pretty good idea of about half of the 68 tournament teams, but with conference tournaments being the ultimate game changer and still a half season to play, there is still a lot of unpredictability.  While seeds, bubble teams, and mid-major conference auto bid winners will without question change throughout the next 2 weeks it is time I start prognosticating the field of 68.

If you followed the site last year you will remember the general concept of Bracketology but this year I have decided to switch up the format a little bit. Like last year I am not going to match the teams up because this is a waste of time and there is almost zero chance I or anyone else will get the matchups correct. Secondly, like last year the team that is currently in 1^st or 2^nd in their conference will be selected as the conference’s automatic berth when dealing with mid-majors. Although I’d like to just project the conference winners, this will ensure that my picks are more objective and not just affected by biases or my personal opinions. In terms of format changes, the biggest change is that this season I will not just give you the team and the seed, but will give you a little write up on each team. This change aims to provide you the readers with a little more insight into each team in my field of 68, and an idea of who their top players are and who they have beaten.  Finally the seeds are not ranked 1-4, with the exception of the #1 seeds which will be ranked 1-4 in order to designate the top overall seed. As a disclaimer remember that over the next week a lot will change and seeding and bubble teams will change on a nightly basis over the next 2 weeks. This is just my 2^nd edition of Bracketology this season but in the next 2 weeks expect many updates as I will try to keep it as up to date as possible during Championship Week. Finally these projections are reflected on Tuesday February 28th so a major loss or win after this date will not impact or be reflected in this version of Bracketology. That’s about it from me I officially declare class in session. Going forward in order to keep you updated and stay timely I will not have the time to give you full writeups  so I will revert back to the old format for the last 2 weeks of the season.

*Denotes Conference Champion-Automatic Bid

8 BracketBusters Games you should care about

By Gus Elvin

Who’s Kentucky play this weekend? What about Syracuse? Well it doesn’t matter because for one weekend it’s all about the smaller conferences as this weekend ESPN host’s the 10^th annual BracketBusters. If you are not familiar with BracketBusters it is a 3-day event in which teams from lesser known conferences, or so –called “mid-majors” take on each other in a series of games. These games between these “mid-major” conferences aim to showcase these lesser known schools and smaller conferences to the national audience and give these teams another chance to boost their tournament resume. This game to some teams can even be the difference between earning an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament and settling for the NIT as this national showcase has the ability to make or break a bubble team’s season. This season’s BracketBusters is the largest of the event’s 10 year history as 142 teams from 16 different conferences will participate in 71 games spread out over the next 3 days. Some of these games will have a major impact on the NCAA Tournament such as #21 Saint Mary’s at #16 Murray State while others are strictly for conference bragging rights such as (4-24) Tennessee Martin at (9-15) Southeastern Louisiana.

Bracketology #1 (January 29^th) 

By Gus Elvin

Yes, folks it’s about that time of year as we stand about a month and a half away from the NCAA Tournament , meaning it’s time to start talking brackets, seeds and who’s in and who’s out. At this point in the season we have a pretty good idea of about half of the 68 tournament teams but with conference tournaments being the ultimate game changer and still a half season to play there is still a lot of unpredictability.  While seeds, bubble teams and mid-major conference leaders will without question change throughout the next 2 months it is never too early to start prognosticating the field of 68. If you followed the site last year you will remember the general concept of Bracketology but this year I have decided to switch up the format a little bit. Like last year I am not going to match the teams up because this is a waste of time and there is almost zero chance I or anyone else will get the matchups correct. Secondly, like last year the team that is currently in 1^st or 2^nd in their conference will be selected as the conference’s automatic berth when dealing with mid-majors. Although I’d like to just project the conference winners, this will ensure that my picks are more objective and not just affected by biases or my personal opinions. In terms of format changes the big thing is that this season I will not just give you the team and the seed but will give you a little write up on each team. This change aims to provide you the readers with a little more insight into each team in my field of 68 and an idea of who their top players are and who they have beaten.  Finally the seeds are not ranked 1-4, with the exception of the #1 seeds which will be ranked 1-4 in order. As a disclaimer remember that it is just January 29^th and we still have a long way to go before the NCAA Tournament so a lot can and will change in the upcoming months. This is just the 1^st in a series of Bracketology updates so expect to see these updated about every 2 weeks going forward and then daily during the final week of the regular season and conference tournament week. Finally these projections are reflected on Sunday January 29^th so a major loss or win early this week will not impact this version of Bracketology. That’s about it from me I officially declare class in session.

*Denotes Conference Champion-Automatic Bid

After Half a Season which Teams and Players deserve Awards and Accolades?

by Gus Elvin

The college basketball season is just about half over which means it is time to look back on the first half of the season and recognize those who have stood out both collectively and individually. In layman’s terms it is time for the 2^nd annual TSHQ College Basketball Mid-Season Awards. These awards are based strictly on what has taken place up to this point and in no one way are final or set in stone. These awards include positive accolades like the best team, best player, etc. but also include infamous labels like the biggest disappointment thus far this season.   Remember the season is still just half way complete so teams can still improve or deteriorate as college basketball goes deeper into conference play.   Without further babbling from me it is time to look at some of the biggest storylines of the first half of the college basketball season as I delve out awards and accolades to the deserving parties of the first half of the college basketball season.

 1.)Best Team- Syracuse-  The  current #1 team in the land has looked the part this season as the Orange have relatively cruised to a 17-0 record on the court despite dealing with off-court allegations and negative media attention. Syracuse which 2 months ago was rattled with molestation accusations against assistant coach Bernie Fine has not showed any negative effects on the court as they remain unbeaten heading into a matchup with Villanova. While Syracuse has not played the toughest schedule up to this point they have notched good wins against #19 Florida, #20 Marquette, Pac-12 contender Stanford and at an improved NC State club. The reason I give Syracuse the nod over fellow unbeaten Baylor or early season frontrunners Kentucky and North Carolina is balance. The Orange have 7 players who average over 7 points per game and all 7 of them are capable for exploding for a 20 points on a given night. Syracuse in terms of scoring is led by senior Kris Joseph(14.1ppg) and super sub Dion Waiters(12.5ppg) but like I said don’t sleep on the rest of the team as Scoop Jardine, Brandon Triche and even C.J. Fair have shown they are capable of big scoring outings. Another reason Syracuse is my choice for “Best Team” at this point is their unselfishness as they rank 11^th in the nation in assists at 17 per game and average just 11 turnovers, the 18^th fewest total in the country. This stat is especially telling when you consider Syracuse plays at a much quicker tempo then basically everyone on this list with the exception of Missouri. Right now I believe Syracuse is deserving of their #1 ranking but with a brutal February schedule that includes 5 ranked opponents it will be interesting to see just how good the Orange really are this season. Syracuse has been playing good basketball all season long and with tested seniors like Kris Joseph and Scoop Jardine I expect the Orange to continue as one of the favorites come March. If Syracuse has a weakness it may be rebounding as their bigs are not among the toughest in the nation as Fab Melo, Baye Moussa- Keita and freshman Rakeem Christmas mays struggle against a good rebounding team like a Kentucky or a Carolina.

Runners up: Kentucky, North Carolina, Baylor, Indiana, Missouri

Can Murray State or or one of the other Remaining Unbeatens Run the Table?

by Gus Elvin

As we approach New Year’s Day and wrap up the 2^nd month of the college basketball season we currently have 6 remaining unbeatens left in college basketball. These unbeatens are a very diverse group as highly ranked preseason teams like Syracuse, Baylor and Louisville are joined by Missouri, Indiana and surprising Murray State with unblemished records.  Historically the odds of a team finishing the entire season undefeated are extremely low as only 12 teams have ever finished a season without a loss. 7 of those teams won the national championship, 1 won an NIT title(Long Island University in 1939, as the NIT was more prestigious at the time) and the other 4 did not play in the postseason because they were not invited to a tournament or were ineligible for postseason play. The odds have been even lower over the past 35 years as only Bob Knight’s 1976 Indiana Hoosiers were able to complete the regular season and postseason undefeated. Since that magical season in which the Hoosiers went 32-0 behind National Player of the Year Scott May no one has been able to run the gauntlet unbeaten as teams like Rutgers in ’76,  Indiana State in ’79 and UNLV in ’91 came up short following unbeaten regular seasons. Since that ’76 IU team 4 other teams have finished the regular season unblemished most recently Saint Joseph’s in 2004 but no one has been able to join that elusive club of undefeated National Champions that currently has 7 members. This season 345 teams started out the season unbeaten but as of December 25^th we have only 6 remaining unbeatens left standing as Syracuse, Louisville, Baylor, Missouri, Indiana and Murray State are all yet to taste defeat.  It’s now time to take a look at the 6 remaining undefeated teams in college basketball and breakdown their success so far, look at their upcoming schedules and try to predict when each will lose if they do in fact lose a game this season.  To start our look at the remaining unbeatens we will look at the team currently ranked #1 in the nation, the Syracuse Orange.