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The Vancouver Canucks need to trade Roberto Luongo sooner than later

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Mistakes aren’t always a bad thing.  You can learn something very important from them.  When you’re not involved in the mistake, but watching what’s going on, you can learn the lesson without actually having to deal with the consequences of the mistake.  This is the situation the Canucks are in right now with Roberto Luongo.  Cory Schneider is clearly the guy in Vancouver right now and Luongo has to be moved.  They saw the mistake made by Scott Howson and the Columbus Blue Jackets in their handling of Rick Nash.  The clock is ticking for Mike Gillis.  If he doesn’t pull the trigger soon, he may end up taking a deal well below Luongo’s value.

To be fair, the trade that sent Rick Nash to the New York Rangers wasn’t that bad at all given the circumstances.  But these circumstances were created by the Jackets’ assuming that if they sat on Nash, the market would get better.  That was the mistake.  The value of Nash was probably highest during last season’s trade deadline.  When the playoffs and the Cup are at stake, a team or two is more willing to roll the dice than they are when they have the entire spring and much of the summer to think about it.  Then you take the asking price hostage?  GMs are just going to simply look around for other options.  They get tired of waiting and don’t like seeing other players being gobbled up around them as they wait around for a GM to make his mind up.

If I were Gillis, I would have traded Luongo awhile ago. 

If the Predators lose Shea Weber, they can blame themselves

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When I was in grade school, whenever I waited until the last minute to do a project, that’s when the printer would run out of ink.  It was a near guarantee.  That’s how I feel about the Nashville Predators right now.  Blame the current CBA, blame the Flyers, blame the league, blame Weber and Suter, but at the end of the day, they have no one to blame but themselves for being on the brink of losing their two best players this July.

As I’m sure everyone and their mother-in-law knows by now, the Flyers have signed Predators RFA defenseman Shea Weber to an offer sheet worth $110 million over 14 years.  This includes $26 million in the first calendar year based on the structure of the contract.  The Preds have a week to match it.  If they don’t, the Flyers get Weber and Nashville gets four 1st round picks from the Flyers in return.

The $7.86 million cap hit isn’t the problem for the Predators.  That’s more than fair (a bargain, really) for a player of the caliber of Weber.  The Predators are over $10 million under the cap floor, so they need to spend the money there anyway.  The problem is that $26 million in the first year.  Nashville has a tight budget and likely only planned to be a few million over the floor like they were last season.  If they need to pay Weber that kind of money, they’re now way over budget and it will cripple them financially.

Previewing the NHL Free Agency: Forwards and Defensemen

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Get out your pocketbooks, the money’s going to be flying around tomorrow.  The start of NHL free agency is set to begin tomorrow, July 1st.  We’ll get right to what I think will have happen, position by position, highlighting key players.

Forwards

We all know who the marquee player this offseason is: Zach Parise.  The current New Jersey Devil is set to make himself quite a bit of money; he’ll likely earn a 4 to 7 year contract and will get a raise from his previous cap hit of $6 million.  He’s an absolute stud and will be a great asset to whichever team is able to sign him.  Apparently, he’s meeting with management today.  Could we see a deal by the end of the night?

The Pittsburgh Penguins have been brought up a lot in the Parise sweepstakes (along with every other big name out there) and would love to have him skating next to Sidney Crosby.  The Pens do have the cap space to sign him to whatever they need to, but won’t have much money left to sign anyone of significance after that.  That changes, however, if they can find someone to take Paul Martin and his $5 million cap hit.  The Penguins need to be careful—they need defense, not offense.  They did resign Matt Niskanen today but they’ve also traded away their best defensive forward in Jordan Staal.  If they sign Parise without taking care of their needs on the backend, it could once again spell trouble in the playoffs.

Looking at the trades around the NHL

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It’s been a nice change this offseason.  With only Round 1 of the draft in the books, we’ve already seen several trades involving some serious names.  Let’s take a look at some of the deals that have gone down.

The Lightning started things off by acquiring goalie Anders Lindback, Kyle Wilson, and a 7th round pick from the Nashville Predators for G Sebastian Caron, two 2nd rounders, and a 3rd rounder in 2013.  After a couple of strange seasons in net, Lindback has the potential to develop into a strong NHL goalie.  At 6’6”, he’s definitely got the size, but he’s only played in a handful of games in his two NHL seasons.  Now we’ll see if the Lightning hold onto Mathieu Garon or if they make a move for a veteran goalie for a year or two to compete with Lindback.  Nashville gets excellent return on their backup goalie who had no chance of starting after Pekka Rinne was signed long term.

Sergei Bobrovsky was the next backup goalie to go as the Flyers sent him to the Columbus Blue Jackets for a 2nd round pick and two 4th rounders.  This gives the Flyers some cap relief as a backup on the free agent market can be had for cheaper than Bob’s $1.75 million cap hit.  I’m surprised the Flyers got this much in this deal.  Bobrovsky’s got talent, but he was not good last season which could have been hidden by all of the controversy and criticism surrounding Ilya Bryzgalov.  Bob likely won’t be an elite goaltender at any point, given the chance and the right circumstances, he has a chance to be a solid starter.

What will the Blue Jackets do with Rick Nash?

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What will the Blue Jackets do with Rick Nash?

With the NHL season over and the free agency period just two weeks away, it’s time to shift our focus on the fun world of NHL rumors.  I don’t claim to own a magic ball or have any inside sources that feed me information, I’m going based on what I see are team needs and hunches.  Nonetheless, it’s fun to discuss and debate.

Today, we’re going to look at Rick Nash of the Columbus Blue Jackets.  The Jackets really shook things up last offseason, bringing in Jeff Carter and James Wisniewski with long contracts worth big money.  Carter ended up being traded to the Los Angeles Kings and Wisniewski didn’t really live up to the hype like most of us figured.  Fortunately, the Carter to LA trade brought back Jack Johnson, who is quite a talent on the back end.  Johnson will lighten the load for Wiz and allow him to focus on what he does best: rack up points on the powerplay and take cheapshots.  But even with the addition of Johnson, there’s just too much wrong with Columbus for them to try to keep trudging along.  They tried moving him at the deadline but couldn’t get a deal done, mostly because they wanted the moon for him.  I’m assuming they’re going to be asking for the moon again, which they may or may not get given the flexibility that the offseason gives potential trading partners.  They still have to be careful that they’re not too stubborn, or else there will be a lot of clicking of phones.

Nash is the top available forward this summer and we’re likely to hear rumors about him going to every single team in the league.  Despite never really playing with a prolific center, he’s a stud and usually has put up 30+ goal campaigns.  Because he’s done so much with so little around him, fans and front offices will be salivated over the chance to get their top playmaker paired with him.  I do think that Columbus will deal him as I think they’d prefer several forwards with shorter contracts with smaller cap hits.  They could likely get two top six forwards in a deal involving Nash, likely young players to whom they could reasonable money and get good production.  Columbus has several players under very long term contracts, and Nash is the only moveable player aside from Jack Johnson (who needs to stay on the club).  And remember that at the end of the day, Nash will be able to nix any deal that is made with his no movement clause.

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Kings!

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Congratulations to the 2011-2012 Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings!  I don’t think anyone really expects to see a team dominate their way through a postseason the way the Kings did…and they did it as an 8th seed.  Kudos to the entire organization, from the top all the way down to the bottom.  They were patient building this team and knew when to make a splash with some deadline acquisitions to try a serious run at the Cup.  This strategy, of course, worked.  Now they have the summer to celebrate with the world’s greatest trophy.

Goalie Jonathan Quick without a doubt deserves the praise he’s been getting.  He was a brick wall from Game 1 against Vancouver to Game 6 against the Devils.  But to give him too much credit cheapens what the rest of the team did in front of him.  There is no doubt that he is a stud goalie, but a strong defense in front of him allowed him to produce at his full potential.  Quick is not going to be beaten near the goal mouth and on low shots.  LA did a fantastic job of understanding their goalie’s strengths and weaknesses and then playing a style that complemented them well.

While their defense and many of their forwards will still be under contract going into next season, a few players head into the offseason as free agents.  The most notable free agent is Jarret Stoll.  He was a very good third line center who could play solid minutes and chip in a goal here and there.  This is no knock on Stoll, because he is what he is, but his value right now is exaggerated.  Had his team not won the Cup, he’d be seen as a decent player who wasn’t worth nearly as much as his $3.6 million cap hit given his production over the last few years.  But give him a Cup, and he’s suddenly “the guy you need on your team to win.”  It happens every year: a third line player goes on a surprising tear late in the playoffs.  Now fans from all over the league are willing to pay whatever it takes to get the guy on their team without realizing they’ve already got several players who can do the same job.  Bottom six “energy” players win Stanley Cups because pretty much every club in the league has those types of guys on their team.  Stoll might be able to get back to a more offensively productive role in the right circumstances, but I wouldn’t want to give him more than $2.5 million a year, especially if he’s not expected to play in the top six.

The other interesting free agent is Dustin Penner.  He had a forgettable regular season this year before posting a respectable 11 points in 20 postseason games.  In years prior to that, he’s had mixed results in production, including some that caused him to receive criticism from his coach in Edmonton about his play and conditioning.  Penner is in need of a new contract, but I’m not sure anyone’s going to match his previous $4.25 million cap hit courtesy of a Kevin Lowe offer sheet several years back.  I liked what I saw from him in the playoffs.  He was skating well and seemed very motivated.  At 6’4” and 245 lb, he has power forward written all over him and could be signed to a relatively cap friendly contract to a team looking to improve in size up front.

I don’t want to forget to bring up the New Jersey Devils in this.  They deserve congratulations on a heck of a run in the playoffs.  Like the Kings, no one really expected them to play that far into the playoffs, but it only shows once again that the games are played on the ice, not on paper.  The Devils have a few more question marks this offseason than the Kings do, including two players that represent the face of the franchise.  There’s plenty of cap space to go around, but that’s mostly because they only have 13 players under contract for next season.

Martin Brodeur is, well, old.  It looks like he will likely resign for another year with the team, and I would hope at a decent cap hit for the Devils.  But at this point, the Devils need to focus on who they’re looking at to take over the reins in net when Brodeur decides it’s time to hang them up.  There are some decent goalies in their system, but with Johan Hedberg also a UFA and 39 years old, they might want to look at a 2 to 3 year band aid before a prospect is NHL ready (or they decide to make a move to acquire an NHL goalie).  That said, I think that Josh Harding could be a good fit for the Devils, and a cheap one at that if the Wild decide not to resign him.

Zach Parise is the big question mark.  As I mentioned earlier, the Devils currently don’t have many players under contract, and after next season, Ilya Kovalchuk is the only contracted forward on the team (pending all signings to come, of course).  With the cap likely increasing to just over $70 million next year, there will be money to spend, and the Devils won’t be able to win a bidding war with another team or two, especially if Brian Burke decides that he’ll mortgage the Maple Leafs’ present, future, and even past to get Parise.  I really don’t see Parise in a Devils uniform next year.  With the Brodeur era to be over soon and so much roster turnover likely to happen, New Jersey might be looking to start with a relatively clean slate in the next few years, especially with young talent like Adam Henrique and Adam Larsson being the future of the club.

It was a great season this year and we should all be looking forward to an intriguing offseason.  In the next few days, I’ll give a preview of what I think some players and teams will do this offseason.  And remember, don’t blink…it’s only two weeks before the July 1st free agency period begins.

TSHQ Stanley Cup Final Preview: New Jersey Devils vs. Los Angeles Kings

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So here we go, the Stanley Cup Final is here again.  To me, it feels like the 2011-2012 season just started a few weeks ago, but we’ve only got a few weeks left before the summer starts and we wait again until next fall.  But before that happens, we’ve still got a couple of more hockey games left to enjoy.

Of course, my “big thing” this year was talking about how the lower seeds never win the Stanley Cup (once since 1992), so a 6th versus 8th seed is not exactly what I expected this time around.  And considering I’ve only correctly picked the winner in series between these two teams a combined two times, I’m picking a theme song for myself for this Stanley Cup Final:



So I’m tempted to pick the opposite of whom I actually think will win.  To cover myself, I’m not going to tell you what I’ve decided to do with that.

TSHQ Eastern Conference Final Preview

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Although it may not be as surprising as the Kings making to the Conference Final, I certainly didn’t see the New Jersey Devils getting a chance to play for a berth in the Stanley Cup Final.  The New York Rangers, despite two very hard fought series, are proving there was good reason they captured the #1 seed in the East.  So for this series, get ready for a tough, muddy Atlantic Division battle.

As just mentioned, the Rangers just came out of two grueling seven game series against the Ottawa Senators and Washington Capitals.  Are they going to be getting tired or will they be able to stay in a groove after only having one day off?  The Devils, on the other hand, beat the Flyers handily in 5 games and have had plenty of rest leading up to the start of the series tomorrow night.  The question for the Devils, as it is for any team in their situation, is whether or not the rest will negatively affect them in Game 1.

It’s tough to gauge the Devils.  They looked terribly slow and worn down by their previous series in Game 1 in their series against the Flyers before making changes and dominating the rest of the series.  They were terrible at faceoffs and the penalty kill against the Panthers, and then they looked great against the Flyers.  Brodeur looked like the old Brodeur in a good portion of the series against the Panthers, but looked really blah at times against the Flyers (although he didn’t have to be any better than that).

TSHQ Western Conference Final Preview

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Wow, the Kings.  Whoddathunk that the 8th seed Los Angeles Kings would beat both top seeds in the Western Conference to make it all the way to the Conference Final series…in only 9 games.  They’ll take on the 3rd seeded Phoenix Coyotes who have been very impressive in their own right beating a tough Predators team pretty convincingly last round.

I’m going to get the goalie talk out of the way right now.  Both Jonathan Quick of the Kings and Mike Smith of the Coyotes have been excellent in the playoffs.  At this point, I think the advantage is a wash.  Both are great goalies who are going to make all of the saves they should and a few they shouldn’t.  So really, it’s going to come down to which team is capable of making their opponent’s goalie less of a factor in the outcome of the series.

Like baseball, if the pitcher puts the ball where he wants it, the batter’s not hitting the ball.  He may get lucky once in awhile, but as a rule, the best pitchers are the ones who can hit their spots consistently.  The same is true in hockey.  If a shooter places his shot exactly where he wants it, the goalie’s not making the save, unless he gets very lucky or happens to completely pull one out of thin air.  I expect this series to be a defensive battle whose winner will be the team that capitalizes on mistakes.  With defenses and goalies this good (LA gives up 1.56 goals per game; Phoenix, 1.91), high quality scoring chances come at a premium.  If you have a great chance, you’d better bury it.

Jeremy Roenick needs to cut Braden Holtby a break

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Jeremy Roenick just inspired me to open up Microsoft Word and write this article.  I’ve had enough of him and what’s been being spewed forth from his mouth.  I’ve had enough of people spewing the same nonsense.

Most of NBCSport’s NHL commentators have annoying tendencies.  Whether it’s Pierre McGuire being creepy or Mike Milbury constantly saying something embarrassingly stupid, it’s starting to get frustrating to watch.  And I just noticed one of Jeremy Roenick’s annoying tendencies while listening to him on the pre-game show for the Rangers/Capitals game about to start.

According to Roenick, just about every goal that a goalie gives up is soft.  “That goal can’t happen” or “he really needs to make that save.”  Braden Holtby was his target tonight for only making 11 saves on 14 shots.*  They showed the first goal given up to Artem Anisimov.  He got blamed for it.  They showed the second goal to Kreider.  Blamed again.  And finally, they showed the goal to Brad Richards.  It was considered a weak five-hole goal.

Interested in Writing For TSHQ?

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