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The top 2 teams in the BCS lost for the first time since 2007. 2007, of course, was the most mayhem-filled year we’ve had in BCS history. Now, Notre Dame and Alabama are the top 2 teams for the first time in over 40 years. Notre Dame can guarantee itself a spot in the National Championship Game by beating USC this week. Alabama and Georgia can each guarantee themselves a spot if they win out. If both Alabama and Georgia win this week, the SEC championship game will be a de facto play-in game for the NCG.

If both Alabama and Georgia end up with 2 losses, things will be very interesting. Right now, Florida is ahead of Oregon in the BCS. However, Florida cannot move up in the computers at all. Their computer score is locked in at .96, and it won’t go lower if both Alabama and Georgia lose another game. Oregon, however, would gain quite a lot of ground in the computers were that scenario to pass. It would be more than enough to move Oregon ahead of Florida. Thus, unless the voters interfere, Oregon will be in the NCG if Both Alabama and Georgia lose a game. Ducks fans, you’re rooting for Auburn and Georgia Tech this weekend (and you really don’t want Notre Dame to lose).

And if we see 2007-esque mayhem with Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, and Florida all losing another game, the voters will probably manipulate their ballots to put a specific team (possibly even Texas A&M) in the NCG. But it’s too early to speculate about that. Right now, Notre Dame, Alabama, and Georgia control their own destinies. And if the SEC slips up, Oregon looks to be in a pretty good position.

The college football world was waiting in shock for a few minutes this week as it looked like Alabama was going to lose to LSU. Not only would the consensus favorite to win the BCS National Championship Game have been knocked out of the running (for now), but it would have meant the potential for 3 undefeated teams fighting for the final two NCG spots. As it is now, though, Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame are all fighting for one spot against Alabama. Kansas State has a bit of an advantage in that regard, though Oregon will gain on them quickly as their computer profile rises with a backloaded schedule.

Alabama is clearly in control of their own situation right now. Their already-strong computer profile will only get stronger as they face a few more good opponents to close the season. They might not be the top computer team in the country by the end of the year, but their unassailable lead in the human polls will easily carry them through. Oregon is a strong #2 in the polls but their weak computer profile is holding them back. As long as they stay a consensus #2 in the human polls they will probably be okay. They also have a backloaded schedule so their computer profile will rise. It will be close between them and Kansas State (and Notre Dame can play spoiler if either of them wins unimpressively), and it really is too close to call at this point. It will depend on the human voters’ opinions, which means that both teams have to keep style points, as well as winning, in mind for the rest of the year.

Teams Still Eligible for BCS At-Large Consideration:
At this point in the season we have already eliminated most of the AQ teams from receiving a BCS at-large bid. Therefore, we will only list those teams that still have a chance of reaching the top 14 (earlier we listed the teams that were eliminated). In a few weeks, we will narrow that more to just those teams that have a reasonable chance of actually being selected as an at-large, even if they can reach the top 14. Some teams not on this list can still win their conferences, but that is their only available entry to the BCS.
ACC: Florida State, Clemson,
Big East: Louisville
Big Ten: Michigan, Northwestern
Big XII: Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas, TCU
Pac 12: Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford,
SEC: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, LSU Mississippi State, Texas A&M,
Non-AQs: Louisiana Tech, Kent State, Toledo, and Northern Illinois all can still qualify for the BCS. For an in-depth discussion of the race for the non-AQ automatic bid, see below.

Georgia’s upset of Florida this past week was certainly a surprise, but it didn’t really do much to the overall BCS race. Only 1 SEC team could run the table anyway, and everyone has assumed for a while that it will be Alabama. And while this matters because now Georgia, not Florida, will play in the SEC championship game, it still hasn’t changed the fact that an undefeated SEC team will be in the National Championship Game (for what will happen if Alabama loses a game, see below).

Of course, much more happened last week than just Florida losing. We began last week with 11 undefeated teams, 7 of whom were serious NCG contenders (Mississippi State would have definitely been in the conversation had they run the table). Now we are left with just 6, with only 4 of them seriously in the discussion. Ohio State doesn’t count because they are not postseason eligible and Louisville will need a few more Armageddon-like weeks to move into serious contention. Not only did we lose almost half of our unbeatens, but the two main 1-loss contenders that weren’t from the SEC both fell as well. And even though Florida State has slid back up to a solid #7 in each poll, their computer profile is so poor that they are very far down the pecking order for an NCG berth.

The only team that really controls their own destiny right now is Alabama. The Crimson Tide are guaranteed a spot in the NCG if they win out. That is a given. But not much else is. Kansas State looks like they are in very good position at the moment. But that good position is based on Notre Dame being significantly behind them in the polls and on the Irish being ahead of Oregon in the computers. Should either of those conditions change, Kansas State’s position will be just as precarious as anyone else’s. Kansas State cannot afford a Notre Dame loss because that would allow Oregon to gain serious ground in the computers. Nor can they afford for the Irish to be too impressive, as that might allow them to gain in the polls. It is a very, very tight race at the moment, and any one of those 3 teams could easily move to #2 even if they all keep winning. Oregon is far from out of this, regardless of what some people think. Their solid hold on #2 in the polls does mean a ton in the BCS, even if the computers are holding them back at the moment. But they cannot afford for that hold to slip any more than it already has.

Teams Still Eligible for BCS At-Large Consideration:
At this point in the season we have already eliminated more than half of the AQ teams from receiving a BCS at-large bid. Therefore, we will only list those teams that still have a chance of reaching the top 14 (earlier we listed the teams that were eliminated). In a few weeks, we will narrow that more to just those teams that have a reasonable chance of actually being selected as an at-large, even if they can reach the top 14. Some teams not on this list can still win their conferences, but that is their only available entry to the BCS.
ACC: Florida State, Clemson,
Big East: Louisville
Big Ten: Michigan, Northwestern,
Big XII: Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas, West Virginia
Pac 12: Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, USC,
SEC: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, LSU Mississippi State, Texas A&M,
Non-AQs: Louisiana Tech, Kent State, Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Boise State all can still qualify for the BCS. For an in-depth discussion of the race for the non-AQ automatic bid, see below.

The surprise this week, which really shouldn’t have been a surprise at all, is that Oregon fell to #4 in this week’s BCS rankings. I’ve been saying for a while now that things will get close because other teams will have better computer rankings, but that as long as they keep their unanimous or near-unanimous #2 spot in the polls, they should be okay. Usually, in a case where a team with a good human poll score but poor computer score starts out low in the BCS, they rise quickly because they have room to gain computer points while everyone else stays stagnant. The problem here is that the top 5-6 computer teams have such strong computer profiles that Oregon is not going to pass them after a week against a decent team. Still, their schedule is quite backloaded and they should easily move into the top 4 in computers if they win out. Whether or not that will enough, though, is an entirely different question.

I did say that Oregon will be safe if they can keep a near-unanimous #2 and I stand by that statement. The problem, however, is that the Ducks’ hold on that #2 spot in the polls is slipping. It’s slipping slowly and it’s still strong, but they are slowly losing votes. They haven’t yet lost enough that I will say that Kansas State controls their own destiny (in addition to Florida and Alabama), but Oregon is now no longer the favorite to reach the National Championship Game if both Oregon and Kansas State win out. And Notre Dame is still also right there, though the voters clearly believe they are a cut below the top 4 at the moment.

Teams Still Eligible for BCS At-Large Consideration:
We are just over halfway through the season, but we have already eliminated more than half of the AQ teams from receiving a BCS at-large bid. Therefore, we will only list those teams that still have a chance of reaching the top 14 (until now we listed the teams that were eliminated). Some teams not on this list can still win their conferences, but that is their only available entry to the BCS.
ACC: Florida State, Clemson, NC State, Duke
Big East: Rutgers, Louisville
Big Ten: Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Big XII: Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, West Virginia
Pac 12: Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, USC, Arizona State, UCLA
SEC: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, LSU Mississippi State, Texas A&M,
Non-AQs: Louisiana Tech, Ohio, Kent State, Toledo, Tulsa, and Boise State all can still qualify for the BCS. For an in-depth discussion of the race for the non-AQ automatic bid, see below.

The Polls:

The discussion of the top 4 has been beaten to death and beyond, and even minor weekly fluctuations are going to matter in that race, so on some level it’s not even worth discussing how those 4 will play out in the human polls. What is much more interesting to discuss this week are the 1-loss teams. All of the 1-loss teams in the top 10 more or less will still get a say in the national race. Oklahoma still faces undefeated Notre Dame. LSU still plays undefeated Alabama and possibly Florida (or Georgia) again. Georgia plays Florida and either Alabama or LSU. And USC will still face Oregon, Notre Dame, and either Oregon a second time or Oregon State. Now, LSU has a good lead on all of the 1-loss teams. In fact, they lead Oklahoma by more than 1 spot in the Coaches’ Poll and by more than two spots in the Harris Poll. That lead will evaporate if Oklahoma beats Notre Dame this week, but LSU would quickly make up any lost ground (with interest) if they beat Alabama the following week.

The initial BCS Standings of the season came out this week, and they basically said what we all knew they would say. Alabama is sitting with a pretty good lead at #1. Oregon is behind them at #2. After that, things get a bit cluttered. Notre Dame, Florida, and Kansas State are all jockeying for position at the top of the undefeated AQs. And Oregon State is floating behind there somewhere, gaining ground quickly but needing help to pass even some 1-loss teams. And the non-AQ race is no longer as interesting, with Boise State in a clear driver’s seat. If the Broncos slip up, though, there are several teams that might still have a chance at pulling out that necessary top 16 ranking.

We now only have two teams that control their own destinies. If either Florida or Alabama win out, they are safely in the National Championship Game. That is a given. People think Oregon is also safe because they are not far from being a unanimous #2 in the polls. But they are now far from being a lock. Kansas State and Notre Dame are just too close behind them. Notre Dame in particular could probably jump anyone if they end the season undefeated. Both Notre Dame and Kansas State will have far superior computer numbers and with tougher schedules could crack that hold that Oregon has in the polls. In fact, right now I can’t say with confidence that if Notre Dame wins out that Oregon even has the advantage. Keeping Kansas State undefeated and a buffer between them and Notre Dame might matter in the end. And Notre Dame staying undefeated will hurt Kansas State’s computer numbers. If either of those two runs the table, though, and the other one doesn’t, I have to think that Oregon is looking at #3 right now.

Teams Eliminated from BCS At-Large Consideration:
Even though we’re only halfway through the season, the following teams have already played themselves out of contention for a BCS at-large bid. Some of these teams could still reach the BCS by winning their conferences, but that will be their only chance at the BCS this year.
ACC: Maryland, North Carolina*, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Virginia, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Miami
Big East: Syracuse, Temple, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, South Florida
Big Ten: Ohio State*, Penn State*, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue
Big XII: Kansas,
Pac 12: California, Colorado, Washington State, Utah, Arizona, Washington
SEC: Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee
Non-AQs: Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky, Ohio, Kent State, Toledo, Nevada, and Boise State all can still qualify for the BCS.
*-Banned from postseason competition this year