TSHQ’s Championship Week Breakdown

Posted in College Basketball by on March 2nd, 2012

Conference Tournament Previews and Projections

By Gus Elvin

With the regular season winding down it is time for that magical time of year we know as Championship Week as almost every team in the nation has a clean slate and an opportunity to live their dream and qualify for the NCAA Tournament.  In a week unlike any other the smaller conferences get their one chance at qualifying for the Big Dance, while teams from the power 6 conferences jockey for position and bubble teams try and stake their claim for an at large bid.  Championship Week technically doesn’t start until Monday but with conference tournaments like the Big South, Horizon and Atlantic Sun under way it is time to start breaking down these tournaments and projecting winners. For this segment I will do a write up for each conference tournament and then give you my pick to win the tournament final. Since there are 31 different leagues that receive autobids and I want to keep this timely and up to date, I will order this by earliest tournament final date, starting with the Ivy League regular season champion and  Saturday’s 3 tournament finals, the Atlantic Sun, Big South and Ohio Valley Conference. I will keep adding to this post as the week goes on and more conference tournaments tipoff which hopefully will give you some insight into the leagues you may not be as familiar with.  We also will keep track of my projections and at the end see how many of these conference tourneys I was accurately able to project. At first this will start slow as there are just 3 bids up for grabs this Saturday and one on Sunday but as we get into next week there will 3 or 4 bids up for grabs a night. As a random note the Ivy League who’s bid goes to the regular season champion could also be determined this weekend depending on results so I will also project that league now just to be safe. After a long season, College Basketball is about to enter its’ most exciting phase as over the next month buzzer beaters, upsets, excitement, despair and much more all come together in an event that we know best as “March Madness”. There is no better time in sports as for the next month college basketball will take center stage in an event filed with drama, intrigue and the unexpected. Without further rambling from me it’s time to kickoff my NCAAB Conference Tournament Previews and Projections starting with the Ivy League. Let the Madness Commence.

Bracketology Bubble Update

Posted in College Basketball by on March 2nd, 2012

March 4th Update

by Gus Elvin

Weekend Update

-Seton Hall slides from 11 seed to Last 4 in after losing 85-58 to Big East bottom dweller DePaul

-Texas drops out with loss to Kansas but moves back in after Arizona loses to ASU

-Xavier slides back in heading to A-10 tourney with work to do after avoiding a bad loss against Charlotte

-Northwestern bounce back and stay in field after winning at Iowa 70-66

-USF despite 12 conference wins is still out for me as Louisville only real good win, decent wins vs bubble teams Cincy and Seton Hall

-Oregon smashes Utah and is the bubble team playing the best basketball right now…first team out right now but next team to move in with a last 4 in team loss

-Arizona crushing loss to ASU probably means at least 2 more wins needed for Wildcats to feel good about their chances.

-Miami still ahead of NC State despite getting swept by them because of wins vs Duke and Fla State + only 1 100+ loss.

-NC State gets needed win vs Virginia Tech but still have no top 50 wins and have bad losses to stanford, clemson and georgia tech

-Saint Joseph’s, heartbreaking OT loss to St. Bonaventure really hurts Joe Lunardis boys ….need to do a lot of work in a-10 tourney. Here because of wins vs Temple, Creighton and Drexel

-VCU-Great record(26-6) but low RPI(64) and best win against South Florida? I say no at large as the Rams need to win the CAA title game on Monday if they want to return to the dance.

-Iona joins bubble watch after MAAC semi-final loss to Fairfield. I don’t know how you can put this team in based on their resume. Gaels are just taking up space here.

-Middle Tennessee State-SEE IONA. Loss to Arkansas State ends MTSU’s Tournament dreams. Great year by the Blue Raiders with wins against Akron, Belmont and UCLA but who are we kidding the Sun Belt was always going to be a 1 bid league.

Tennessee- Out of left field trots Cuonzo Martin and the Volunteers. Tennessee is somehow in the conversation with 13 losses, 4 sub 100 losses, and an RPI of 75. Tennessee’s saving grace right now is their SOS (7) and wins against  Florida(twice) and Vanderbilt. Still need to do some work but Tennessee is peaking at the right time.

-Dayton/Ole Miss- Both of these teams got stay alive wins over the weekend but both need to do a lot of work in their conference tourneys to “really” be in consideration for an at large.  Ole Miss best win Alabama? Going to need to do a lot of work in SEC  and wins against Auburn and then Tennessee in SEC tourney 1st 2 rounds are not the kind of wins that Ole Miss needs right now.

 

*Tomorrow Night I will post my entire Bracketology with updated seeds and the addition of conference auto bid winners Asheville, Murray State, Belmont and Creighton.

Does Anyone on the Bubble want to play in the NCAA Tournament?

Posted in College Basketball by on March 1st, 2012

Bracketology # 2 : February 28th 2011

By Gus Elvin

Well as we approach Championship Week and the season winds down it’s time to take another look at the prospective NCAA field in my updated edition of Bracketology. At this point in the season we have a pretty good idea of about half of the 68 tournament teams, but with conference tournaments being the ultimate game changer and still a half season to play, there is still a lot of unpredictability.  While seeds, bubble teams, and mid-major conference auto bid winners will without question change throughout the next 2 weeks it is time I start prognosticating the field of 68.

If you followed the site last year you will remember the general concept of Bracketology but this year I have decided to switch up the format a little bit. Like last year I am not going to match the teams up because this is a waste of time and there is almost zero chance I or anyone else will get the matchups correct. Secondly, like last year the team that is currently in 1st or 2nd in their conference will be selected as the conference’s automatic berth when dealing with mid-majors. Although I’d like to just project the conference winners, this will ensure that my picks are more objective and not just affected by biases or my personal opinions. In terms of format changes, the biggest change is that this season I will not just give you the team and the seed, but will give you a little write up on each team. This change aims to provide you the readers with a little more insight into each team in my field of 68, and an idea of who their top players are and who they have beaten.  Finally the seeds are not ranked 1-4, with the exception of the #1 seeds which will be ranked 1-4 in order to designate the top overall seed. As a disclaimer remember that over the next week a lot will change and seeding and bubble teams will change on a nightly basis over the next 2 weeks. This is just my 2nd edition of Bracketology this season but in the next 2 weeks expect many updates as I will try to keep it as up to date as possible during Championship Week. Finally these projections are reflected on Tuesday February 28th so a major loss or win after this date will not impact or be reflected in this version of Bracketology. That’s about it from me I officially declare class in session. Going forward in order to keep you updated and stay timely I will not have the time to give you full writeups  so I will revert back to the old format for the last 2 weeks of the season.

*Denotes Conference Champion-Automatic Bid

The Kansas City Royals

Posted in MLB by on February 29th, 2012

As TSHQ continues our MLB preview, we return to the AL Central and check in with the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have long been more of a developmental Major League farm system. Players like Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon, and Zach Greinke all made names for themselves in KC without much team success around them while on the Royals. Last season, the Royals surprised many with their offensive production, allowing them to climb out of last place and into fourth in the Central. After a few minor deals in the offseason, did the Royals do enough to make a push in 2012?

NBA Mid-Season Truths They Don’t Want You to Know

Posted in NBA by on February 29th, 2012

With the NBA mid-point having just passed as teams finished up playing their 33rd, 34th, 35th games, we’ve officially reached the strike-shorten point on the NBA calendar. While everyone and their mother puts out mid-season recaps and 2nd half previews, we’ll put out something along those lines but with a little more surprise. At the 50% mark of the season, we can already pinpoint certain things that are bound to happen that most people don’t want to believe or won’t believe to be true simply because they live in a fake world where all things NBA are natural and none of their awards are predetermined.

For the purpose of this article, we’re giving you a quick look ahead to what will happen in the 2nd half of the year, but instead of simply predicting it, we’ll tell you why it’s a lock to play out already at this point. And now for some second-half destinies…

Truth #1: Barring major injury, regardless of how well LeBron James continues to play, Kevin Durant will win MVP if OKC is the #1 seed in the West.

LeBron James continues to show in 2012 why he is the best basketball player in the world with yet another dominant regular season (insert playoff joke here.) Unfortunately, despite playing the best season of his career to this point, it will all be for naught at the end of the season because the NBA MVP award is about the most predictable award to predict in major sports once you have a large enough sample size. The NBA does not care who is playing the best basketball each season. Unlike a sport like the NFL which gave out 3 straight MVPs to Brett Favre or 4 total to Peyton Manning in a short period, the NBA does not like to give the same guy MVPs too many times. You have to go back nearly 30 years to Larry Bird to find the last guy to win 3 NBA MVPs in a row. All the while you had guys like Michael Jordan who was on top of the NBA world for a decade and Shaq who was the most dominant player in basketball for nearly as long and Jordan could never win 3 in a row. Shaq has 1 NBA MVP to his name in his entire career.

For whatever reason the NBA has shunned big name players from having the chance to win 3 straight MVPs. The most classic example to point to is last year’s. LeBron James had won 2 consecutive MVP awards and was again on the cusp of a 3rd. While Derrick Rose and the Bulls beat out Miami for homecourt, there was essentially nothing you could point to that Rose did better than LeBron. James outscored him, outrebounded him, averaged more steals, shot a higher percentage from the field, was an all-NBA defender (while Rose was left off all 3 teams), and had nearly a 4 point edge in PER. Yet it was all for naught.

In 2012 we’ll see that trend hold true again because the NBA is about “whose turn it is.” Kevin Durant has gone from an elite player to one of the 2-3 biggest faces in the NBA and at season’s end if Oklahoma City sits atop the Western Conference, Kevin Durant will be named the MVP of the NBA for 2012 for simply scoring and rebounding more despite LeBron’s edge in a number of categories and perhaps no more notably than a 5 point edge in PER which as of now would set the NBA record for PER in a single season.

Super Rugby Week 1 Recap

Posted in Rugby, Sports Opinions, Super Rugby by on February 28th, 2012

Round 1 of the 2012 Super Rugby season is in the books and what a way to start the season. Fans were treated to plenty of exciting finishes across the three countries as every game went down to the final minutes before the result was secured. All in all, 6 of the seven games were decided by one try or less. The 2012 season kicked off on Friday at the same venue as last year’s World Cup final, Eden Park in Auckland as the Blues hosted the Crusaders. Right from the outset it was a great showcase of attacking rugby as the opening 20 minutes went by at a blistering pace as the Crusaders managed to tighten up and hold on for a 19-18 win. New Blues signing Piri Weepu had a chance to cap his Blues debut with a drop goal after the final siren but it was blocked and sailed wide.

Minnesota Vikings off season preview

Posted in NFL by on February 27th, 2012

The Vikings are in a weird spot when it comes to their franchise.

Holding onto the third pick in a draft with a potential franchise QB sitting there even though they just drafted Christian Ponder last year, and more importantly an injured star in Adrian Peterson who, although all reports are his rehab is going great, is still going to be limited coming off major knee surgery.

So how did the Vikings, one Brett Favre interception away from going to the Super Bowl 3 years ago, end up having the third pick in the NFL Draft in 2012?

Let’s take a look.

2007 Minnesota Vikings Draft Results:

AC Milan’s Sulley Muntari has clear goal disallowed

Posted in Soccer by on February 25th, 2012

2012-2013 Post-NSD preseason top 25 part 3: #’s 1-8

Posted in College Football by on February 25th, 2012

It’s that time TSHQ nation. The time where we begin looking at the CFB offseason and what better way to prepare for 2012-2013 than to look at the top 25 teams heading into next season. Some CFB “experts” like to post their top 25 immediately following the national title game, as if that somehow proves something. They come up with some catchy nickname like “The Far Too Early Top 25″ or “The Wow I’m So Smart I Can Predict The Top 25 Before I Know Who is Coming Out Top 25.” That’s cool and all. I’m not impressed. You know what I’d rather do? Wait till I know who is gone from school, what schools pulled in for recruiting classes and then base my judgement on whether a team is top 25 or not by what they are, not what they might be. “Woopdie-doo Bryan, what’s the fun in that? What do you know anyways?” You know what I knew last year? Arkansas was a top 10 team even without Ryan Mallet (placed them 8th). You know who didn’t know that? A LOT of writers didn’t know that. Being the first to post your top 25 doesn’t mean much if it’s wrong. Now I won’t pretend to be perfect. I had some terrible picks. I had some great picks outside of Arkansas. These things are never flawless. But if I’m going to be wrong, I’ll be wrong with info I can say I relied on instead of the guessing game. But enough self-promotion, there’s enough of that all the time on here….

To make it clear, this top 25 (as all top 25′s should be) is based on the teams I believe are the 25 best in America. I don’t care what their records may be. Season predictions will come in August. If a team is likely to lose 2-3 games in league play, I’m not ranking them lower than a team who may lose only once if I think the 2-3 loss team is better. This was broken down into 3 parts concluding now with part 3, the #1-8 teams in College Football heading into 2012. Don’t agree? Let me know why. Want to tell me I’m brilliant? I’ll welcome that too. I had two guys who stood out most noticeably last season in my offseason previews. One guy was an Iowa fan who took exception to my projections for his Hawkeyes who I projected at 4th or 3rd in their division with about 7-8 wins. I hit Iowa on the head last year. The other was a BYU fan who thought at worst they were 10-2 with 11-1 potential. I said 9-3 preseason and then he persuaded me to go with 10-2 come predictions time and well, the Cougars went 9-3. Bastard…

Here you go, my personal, potentially different on purpose, bound to look good and bad at various points, top 25 for the 2012-2013 College Football Season…..Teams: #1-8

For Part one and #’s 18-25 click HERE.
For Part two and #’s 9-17 click HERE.

Writer’s Note: ***Returning starters are based on PhilSteele.com. I’ve scoured the internet for hours and the consensus from many I’ve asked is to use his numbers. If you’re a fan and feel the numbers are wrong, take it up with him. I’ve seen 1000 different numbers for each team.

8. Georgia Bulldogs

2011 Record: 10-4 (Lost to Michigan St. in Outback Bowl)

Returning Starters: 6 offense, 9 defense

Key Games: 9/8 at Missouri, 10/6 at South Carolina, 10/27 vs. Florida (WLOCP)

Synopsis: We’ve been down this road before with the Bulldogs. We’ve seen this story write itself many times. The Bulldogs have quite a bit of talent coming back from a team that went to the SEC Championship game and if football games were only one half would have been able to call themselves SEC champs. They played a very good Michigan State team in the Outback Bowl and let the game slip away after repeated opportunities to win the game in regulation and overtime. Still, for a team who supposedly had their coach with one foot out the door after a week 2 loss to South Carolina, the Bulldogs rebounded and went into the SEC title game 10-2 on the season. In 2012 the Bulldogs enter the SEC East as the clear favorites to repeat. Offensively this team will need to find a way to protect the QB but if they can get that solved in the offseason, they’ll be a tough matchup for most opponents. Cody Glenn, Ben Jones and Justin Anderson leave the offensive line from 2011 with questions on the depth chart of who will step in and fill those voids. Aaron Murray, a talented junior QB that was all-conference last year has the majority of his weapons back this season with Orson Charles being the one key loss off his backfield and receiving group. Isaiah Crowell is expected back for his sophomore season but the embattled RB who was the prized recruit of Georgia’s class a year ago has had his issues with Coach Richt and will see plenty of competition from incoming recruits Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall. Marshall is listed as high as the #1 RB in this class by some recruiting services while Gurley is considered a high character, hard working back. If Crowell is back and these two freshman can be close to what they are projected to be, the UGA run game could become the major factor it was a few years ago with Knowshon Moreno and co. If not, Murray has a talented group of receivers back led by Tavarres King and Malcolm Mitchell. All in all, UGA has 3 of their 4 top pass catchers back from last season and give Murray plenty of choices with the ball both down field and over the middle. Defensively the Bulldogs return 9 members of a stout defense that ranked 5th in the nation overall last year, including top 10 nationally against both the pass and run. As was discussed in the intro, this team has few weaknesses to point to. All-American JR LB Jarvis Jones is back for likely his last season and will spearhead a Bulldogs defense that allowed 20+ points only twice in their last 10 games after going 0-2 to start the year. An experienced group with a ton of seniors in place, they could potentially even be better than last year. The most amazing thing about Georgia in 2012 is their schedule may even be softer than the one on 2011 they rode to a division title. There’s no Boise St. caliber opponent in non-league play and they once again avoid the 3 heavyweights in the SEC West in cross-division play. The biggest challenge will be their road trip to South Carolina in a game that could very well play a key in deciding the division champ at year’s end. Still, with the talent in place and the roster coming back, this team has an outside shot at running it up to the SEC title game. Anything less than 10-2 on the regular season schedule would be a drastic underachievement.

7. Ohio St. Buckeyes

2011 Record: 6-7 (Lost Gator Bowl to Florida)

Returning Starters: 7 offense, 9 defense

Key Games: 10/6 vs Nebraska, 11/17 at Wisconsin, 11/24 vs Michigan

Synopsis: I’m not as isolated on this team as I thought I might be. There’s actually others I’ve seen who have put Ohio St. in their top 10 and I won’t lie I’m a little disappointed. After the Arkansas play last season that I was killed for preseason, only to watch it come to fruition, I was hoping to repeat that in 2012 with the Buckeyes. I’ll be honest, this is an Urban Meyer ranking. Make no mistake about that. If Luke Fickell was still coaching this team I’d have them about 10-12 spots lower. I buy Urban Meyer stock and in this instance I’m pushing all my chips into the middle of the table on a man who has won at his prior stops and has won BIG. If not for that whole little thing we in the collegiate sports world call violations, the Buckeyes would likely be a popular pick to get back to the Rose Bowl in 2012, at the very least a contender to do so. However, the Buckeyes made their own bed and for this season at least just get to play spoiler to those teams trying to get there themselves. Urban Meyer was not left with an empty cabinet when he took the Ohio St. job. In fact there’s quite a bit for him to toy with. First for starters, contrary to what we’ve done this entire poll, we’ll talk defense first and point simply to 9 starters back from the 19th ranked defense in the country that was probably even better than their numbers suggested if not for the intolerable situations they were put into at times last year because of anemic offensive play. All-American DE John Simon and all-conference safety C.J Barnett are the most recognizable names back for Ohio St. but the defense as a whole is loaded and deep. Add in 9 of the Buckeyes 16 recruits that rank as 4 or 5 star players will be defensive players and it’s easy to see Urban is starting to load up a unit that has routinely been elite in the country. Add in they added two Catholic Memorial Knights, CB Armani Reeves and LB Camren Williams and Urban clearly has his mind in the right place (shoutout to the former HS of myself, Gus Elvin and Coley Michalik). Offensively OSU did lose playmakers Boom Herron and DeVier Posey but have a strong group of starters returning, most notably Urban’s new pet project, sophomore QB Braxton Miller. Miller was pretty poor a year ago as a passer and it will be interesting to see how Urban handles that given he had a similar situation with Tim Tebow down at Florida. The guess here is Braxton Miller could become a breakout player nationally next year and the Buckeyes will become more of a dangerous offense as a whole with Urban Meyer’s attack. As mentioned before, the schedule is relatively irrelevant with the sanctions against OSU but looking at games they could play spoiler, Wisconsin likely becomes the favorite to win the division and with the Buckeyes traveling to Madison, a home win by Wisconsin there would go a long way towards improving those chances. In the Legends division, Ohio St. plays Michigan, Michigan St and Nebraska, the 3 teams most likely to compete for that division title so how those 3 games play out could be a key in that race as well. The Buckeyes will look nothing like the 6-7 team from a year ago and are predicted to be one of the most improved teams in the nation in 2012. The only question is will they improve enough to justify this preseason top 10 ranking.

Guru vs. Gamblers Week 6

Posted in College Basketball, Gambling by on February 24th, 2012

It’s the final week of the regular season for this segment. Simply put it’s been an ugly go of it so far. But we all know that championship week and the NCAA tourney can right that ship. You know the deal by now. 6 games for the week courtesy of the Guru and we battle it out with him. So we’ll get to that in a moment. Biggest thing now is explaining the rest of the year. After this week, there’s no more assigned games. In championship week and the NCAA tourney, K.M, the Guru and myself will play any game we feel we have a feel on, which given this year’s performance, we should probably just retire now. But nonetheless, we can play as few or as many games as our little hearts desire. The FIRST person into a game locks the line in. For example, if we all decide we want to play the Big East 9/16 game, it doesn’t matter who the first one is, if Guru makes his bet on it Sunday, whatever the line is on Sunday is the line for the game for all of us, even if it changes before K.M and I put it in. At the end of a couple days, we’ll set up a new thread with our updated records and continue. Same deal for the NCAA tourney. Last year Guru retired to get prepared for his NCAA tourney coverage. K.M and I each hit a heater and used it to propel ourselves to the profit line. Unless we catch fire on this last week, we’ll go into the championship week with a pretty poor record. So lets get caught up:

Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5

Gus “The Guru” Elvin: 18-12 SU, 15-14-1 ATS
K.M: 17-13 SU, 11-18-1 ATS
Bryan: 16-14 SU, 12-17-1 ATS
Bet The Houses: 5-9
Roll The Dices: 1-1-1
K.M Crapshoots: 3-6
Bryan Crapshoots: 0-2

It’s the last week so fortunately we have some quality matchups on the docket….

#3 Missouri at #5 Kansas (-8)

Guru: In a rematch of the Border War Missouri travels to Lawrence looking for a season sweep of the #5 Jayhawks. In the first meeting on February 4th  the Tigers rallied late and escaped at home thanks to an 11-0 run to end the game keyed by 2 huge 3-pointers from Marcus Denmon. As close as the game was in Columbia if you look at the boxscore you will see that Ricardo Ratliffe(6pts) and Flip Pressey(2pts) did absolutely nothing. Don’t expect either to repeat that output the 2nd time around as both are consistent players for Mizzou and are bound to bounce back. As good as Kansas has been this season after losing the Morris twins and Josh Selby, I still feel they are not as good as their record indicates as they lack depth and are too reliant on Thomas Robinson(17.4ppg) and Tyshawn Taylor(16.5ppg). Missouri is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation and with balanced scoring led by Marcus Denmon(17.8ppg) and Kim English(14ppg) I think the Tigers will be too much offensively for Bill Self’s Jayhawks.  If you are looking for an x-factor in this game I think it will be Michael Dixon as the former starter has thrived coming off the bench for the Tigers(12.9ppg, 3.1apg) and seems to play his best against the toughest opposition.  Missouri on the road as the Tigers again show they are for real this season. Mizzou has too much pace and too much scoring for a Kansas team that depends on Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor to score 25+ points. I’m gonna pull a Dorial Green-Beckham here and throw on that Mizzou snap back as the Tigers are my pick. Missouri on the road at the Phog as the Tigers’ guards are too explosive for a Jayhawk team that I believe is a good team but not a great team. Missouri would have been my choice regardless but coming off a loss to KSU the Tigers will come out flying as they look to get back on track after losing their 1st home game of the year. Ricardo Ratliffe will be more of a factor this time around as the nation’s 2nd best shooter from the field(71.7%) goes for 18 and 8 in a good  duel with Thomas Robinson.

Prediction: Missouri 78-Kansas 73

K.M: Kansas wants revenge. I think. Maybe they want to lose. Hell if I know. But I’m stuck now with Kansas as my second best team, so I need them to cover this 8 for me so I can be right about something for the first time this CBB season.

Prediction: Kansas 74, Missouri 63

Bryan: Eight? EIGHT??? Mizzou has been great this year. Yes I realize they just lost to Kansas St. for the 2nd time and yes I realize Kansas almost beat them at Mizzou but at 8 points Kansas has to be almost better by double-digits for the cover. 9+ points to cover? Against a team who has the resume’ of Mizzou? I’m not sure I lay 8 points with many teams against Missouri and I think Kansas is slightly overrated. I’ll take those points and enjoy them.

Prediction: Missouri 69 Kansas 65

Verdict: K.M crapshoots on Kansas

Update: Kansas 87-86,  K.M: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS , 0-2 Crapshoots, Bryan: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, Guru: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS

Interested in Writing For TSHQ?

Contact Bryan Doherty with your name, your sports of interest, and a writing sample from prior work. Highly interested in any Golf or Auto Racing bloggers as well as adding a MLB, College Basketball, and Soccer writer.